Week 3 was rough for me, as I missed my first Thursday night pick of the season and then had my first sub .500 Sunday as well. The majority of the publicly bet teams covered, which is not a good thing for people like me who tend to fade them. No worries though, let’s get right back on that horse and start with this week’s Thursday night game between the Giants and the Redskins. Both teams stumbled out of the gates but are coming off impressive week 3 performances, with the Giants throttling the previously undefeated Texans and the Redskins going blow for blow with the high powered Eagles.
So far, favorites and home teams have dominated the Thursday night games, going 3-0 straight up and against the spread with an average margin of victory of over 27 points. Yikes. That trend obviously can’t last forever, but is this the week the underdog finally covers? I think so.
The Giants finally found their groove on offense last week, both on the ground and through the air. The main reason was the improved play from the offensive line, who finally gave Eli Manning the time needed to run the west coast offense properly. They should have no problems moving the ball against Washington after battling the much tougher Houston D last week.
Washington is also a team on the rise, but I’m not sure how much of it is warranted. Kirk Cousins certainly looks like the real deal, but he’s made only a handful of starts with most of them coming against weak defenses. After getting beat down by the Lions in week 1, the Giants have rebounded well on defense, albeit against Drew Stanton and Ryan Fitzpatrick. I think they’ll be able to put a little pressure on Cousins thanks to the resurgent Jason Pierre-Paul, and the revamped secondary should do a better job on Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson.
Because of all the love for Cousins, the spread on this game opened at a ridiculous 5 points. The sharps immediately pounced on that, lowering it to 3.5 and in some cases 3. The public is still on Washington (approximately 60% of the action) and I think Vegas will look to make some money back after getting beaten week 3.
The bottom line: Kirk Cousins has looked impressive in limited action, but is he the real deal? I’m betting on no, and I think the Giants will be the team to break the Thursday night favorite’s streak.
The Pick: New York Giants +3.5 @ Washington Redskins
Thursday Night Record (2-1)
Last Week- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5- Loss
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