Can you believe it is week 3 of the NFL season already? It feels like only yesterday we drafting our seasonal teams and feeling good about ourselves. I’m sure that everyone has some feelings one way or the other about their teams even after just two weeks of play, but the great part about daily is that no matter how you feel about your seasonal leagues, you can always be a winner! Let me help you become one this weekend. Here are the plays:
Favorite Play: Russell Wilson vs DEN ($6,800)
This was a tough week to find quarterback value, but the one player that stood out to me was Wilson, coming in as the 15th QB on Draft Kings. Russell has been fantastic throughout his career both while favored and in wins, which you can see courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits App:
The Seahawks are favored by about 5 points this weekend depending on where you are looking for the line, and if you believe that line to be sound, then Wilson looks like a clear must start at his price. Tack on the fact that Denver has allowed 354 and 247 yards passing respectively in their first two games, and that idea is solidified.
Drew Brees vs MIN ($8,900) – If you are looking to spend big money at quarterback, Brees should be worth it. I expect him to cut up the Vikings in his first game at home after an 0-2 start to the season.
Matthew Stafford vs GB ($8,800) – Small price dropoff from Brees, and I expect him to be almost equally effective. Stafford also could be easier to stack with in GPP’s.
E.J. Manuel vs SD ($5,800) – Manuel was my top quarterback streaming option this week, so naturally I like him as the 27th most costly QB available on Draft Kings. Considering Wilson’s low price, Manuel is probably strictly a GPP play.
Favorite Play: Rashad Jennings vs HOU ($5,200)
The Giants have been an absolute mess to start the season, but Jennings has been very solid, totaling 205 yards, 8 receptions, and a touchdown through the first two weeks. By yards per carry, his first two matchups have been the toughest in the league in Detroit and Arizona. While I suppose this is a “chicken or the egg” type of thing, both teams were equally impressive in their games against teams not donning the Giant blue. This week, however, the G-Men will face off with the worst run defense in the league (statistically). Houston is allowing a league-high 5.8 yards per carry right now, which makes Jennings severely undervalued. He will be a staple of my lineups this weekend.
LeSean McCoy vs WAS ($7,800) – Shady’s workload is consistently high and Darren Sproles will not outscore him all year.
Giovani Bernard vs TEN ($7,300) – Split touches more with Jeremy Hill last week than in week 1, but he still received more than 30 in the Bengals win over Atlanta.
Khiry Robinson vs MIN ($3,900) – Comes cheap after the injury to Mark Ingram. Good bet for a touchdown against the Vikings.
Donald Brown at BUF ($3,500) – Another injury discount. Ryan Mathews had received 27 touches in San Diego’s first two games and Brown should get most, if not all, of his role.
Favorite Play: Golden Tate vs GB ($5,000)
Depending on the betting line, the Lions are projected to score between 27 and 28 points this week against the Packers. In a potential shootout of that magnitude, I love getting Detroit’s second receiver at a value, which Tate is as the 34th most expensive. He has compiled 23.5% of Detroit’s receiving yardage through the first two weeks, which is almost what a team’s top receiver typically gets. Make no mistake about it, Tate is a big part of Detroit’s passing game and should be a big part of your DFS lineups this weekend.
Demaryius Thomas at SEA ($6,600) – Even in the Super Bowl drubbing handed to Denver by the Seahawks, DT totaled 13/118/1. This is probably the cheapest he will be all season.
Alshon Jeffery at NYJ ($6,400) – Top Jets corner Dee Milliner is doubtful to play Monday night, meaning that Jeffery will see either Antonio Allen or Kyle Wilson matching up with him. He is almost $2,000 cheaper than teammate Brandon Marshall.
Marques Colston/Brandin Cooks vs MIN ($5,400/$5,100) – I like Colston more, but will gladly take either Saints receiver on the cheap in a game I expect Brees to dominate. After a game in which he wasn’t targeted, I think Brees will pepper his veteran teammate with passes.
Percy Harvin vs DEN ($5,400) – Harvin has shown to be a versatile part of Seattle’s offense thus-far. In a game they should be able to move the ball in, I expect him to produce.
Favorite Play: Jared Cook vs DAL ($3,400)
I’m buying Jared Cook this week like it’s 2013. And 2012. And 2011. Whatever, the past is the past Jared! This week the Rams face off with the Cowboys, and that bodes well for the tight end. Dallas has been the worst team in the league against tight ends so far, and were 29th in the league against the position last year. Cook has received 12 targets already this season, and should be able to maximize his production this week for a rock-bottom price.
Rob Gronkowski vs OAK ($5,900) – The Patriots are 14 point favorites, making Gronk a great bet for a TD. This could be the week he breaks out post-injury and it would come at a relative discount.
Zach Ertz vs WAS ($5,200) – Nick Foles has completed 64.6% of his passes to running backs and tight ends so far this season. Philly should score against Washington this weekend, making Ertz a good play for the third straight week.
Kyle Rudolph at NO ($4,200) – Rudolph has been a stable part of Minnesota’s passing game through two weeks and is reasonably priced.
Derek Carrier at ARI ($3,000) – Shout out to our resident handicapper Matt LaMarca for pointing out this play to me. Carrier caught 3 passes for 41 yards last week and is expected to get the start against an Arizona team that can’t cover the tight end.
Favorite Play: Colts at JAC ($3,100)
The Colts have been one of the worst fantasy defenses this season, but I like them this week going against a Jaguars team that has allowed the most points to opposing defenses. This is a tough week for defenses, so a good matchup at a reasonable price is good enough to be my favorite.
Texans at NYG ($3,400) – The Giants have been turnover prone and have already given up a return touchdown this year.
Saints vs MIN ($3,200) – This week is basically one big bet against the Vikings. The Saints are a better defense at home, and we already saw the Patriots dismantle Matt Cassel in the absence of Adrian Peterson.
Cowboys at STL ($2,500) – Dallas played better last week, but this is really about the matchup and minimum price.