Daily Fantasy Tip Offs 3/12

Wednesday nights are always eventful because there are a ton of games being played. For the most part, the big stars disappointed with Westbrook and Harden laying eggs. If you were lucky enough to throw Chris Paul in there, you were probably rewarded with a big night.

5 Things from Last Night

  1. Russell Westbrook is human- He failed crack 40 FDP last night, which at his ridiculous $13,300 salary made him a huge bust. If you faded him, you probably did pretty well.
  2. Kris Middleton is a fantastic tournament option right now- Most people tend to either go really expensive or really cheap at small forward each night, so the guys in the middle like Middleton tend to be under owned. Couple that with the fact that he has 40+ point upside, and I love him as a tournament play.
  3. The coaching change for the Nuggets has been great for DFS players- Guys like Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari, and Kenneth Faried are all underpriced thanks to their disappointing start to the season, but they’re now seeing some consistency in their minutes and increasing their production. These are guys to ride until their price catches up a bit.
  4. Eric Bledsoe is off- He had a fantastic matchup last night against Rubio and the Twolves, but once again failed to crack 4x value. He’s only done so twice in his last 4 games, and both times it was exactly 4x. The upside just isn’t there right now.
  5. Don’t forget about old man Wade- There’s nothing sexy about putting Dwyane Wade in your lineup, but the guy is flat out balling right now. He’s returned at least 5x value in 6 straight and is underpriced with Chris Bosh out of the lineup.

It’s a relatively large slate of games for a Thursday night, with 5 games instead of the usual 2. That means we have a bit more to choose from so hopefully we won’t have to share our winnings with 65 other people. Let’s break it down.

Play of the Day

Tony Parker vs CLE- PG- $6300

I recommended Parker as my play of the day on Monday and he didn’t disappoint. The Spurs have won 6 straight games, and when they’re going well its generally because of Tony Parker. If they want to make it 7 against Cleveland tonight, the ball will be in Parkers hands a lot. He should have a shot at another 40 pointer.

Point Guard

Play- Alexey Shved @ LAL- $5600

Shved’s price has come way up after a monster game on Monday, but I’m not scared. He’s got a dream matchup against the Lakers, and as long as Tim Hardaway Jr is out he should continue to rack up minutes at both guard spots.

Play- John Wall vs MEM- $9000

I think a lot of people will be going cheap at PG tonight, so Wall makes a good contrarian play. He’s played much better recently, returning at least 4.5x value in 4 of his last 6. The matchup is far from ideal, but that’s just another reason he’ll probably be under owned in tournaments.

Also considered- Jordan Clarkson/Jeremy Lin vs NYK- $5800/$5400

Fade- Michael Carter-Williams @ IND- $7800

He’s had two strong games in a row, but I’m not ready to buy into him on Milwaukee yet.  He makes for a decent tourney play because of his upside, but I wouldn’t trust him in cash games.

Shooting Guard

Play- James Harden @ UTA- $11300

With Harden and James being the only two players with salaries greater then $9k tonight, which one you choose will determine a lot about how you finish tonight. Personally, I’ll be going with Harden. The Jazz are below average when it comes to defending 2-guards, and I think Harden will be extra pissed off tonight after getting blanketed by Nic Batum last night.

Play- JR Smith @ SAS- $5800

Smith is the ideal tournament dart throw in the night’s best game. Vegas is predicting this one to be high scoring and close, and JR can throw up a big game when that’s the case. I wouldn’t trust him in my cash lineup, but in tournaments I want to get as much exposure to this game as possible.

Also Considered- Danny Green vs CLE- $5300, Tony Allen @ WAS- $4400

Fade- Giannis Antetokounmpo @ IND- $7000

I don’t love the fact that with OJ Mayo back in the lineup last night, Greek Freak only played 30 minutes in a game that was tight throughout. He’s also taken a backseat in the scoring department to Kris Middleton, and while Giannis can rack up points in a number of ways, I don’t like his chances of doing so tonight against the Pacers.

Small Forward

Play- Kawhi Leonard vs CLE- $8300

Am I scared of playing Kawhi tonight against the King? Absolutely not. I mean he did pretty well in the finals last year right? Anyways until Kawhi’s price comes up closer to $9k he’s a plug and play option for me.

Play- Khris Middleton @ IND- $6500

I mean I mentioned him up top already so it’d be a little hypocritical if I didn’t put him here right? He’s alternated good games and bad games over his last five so I’d be a little careful tonight, but even after last night’s monster I think he’ll be underowned once again.

Also Considered- Corey Brewer @ UTA- $4300, Paul Pierce vs MEM- $4500

Fade- LeBron James @ SAS- $10800

You could make a very convincing case that LeBron should actually be a play tonight. This is a revenge game from last year’s finals and it’ll be on national tv, so he should be extra motivated to have a huge game. In fact, just typing that makes me regret this decision. But I don’t think you can build a good lineup with him and Harden and I’d rather have the bearded one tonight. LeBron sees Kawhi and his dreadlocks all game, and they’re allowing the least FDP/game to small forwards this season.

Power Forward

Play- Terrence Jones @ UTA- $6700

Jones is regularly playing 30+ minutes per game, and he’s rewarding us with nearly a fantasy point per minute right now. Derrick Favors is a good defender, but this price is too good right now.

Play- Ersan Ilyasova @ IND- $4300

If you’re looking for a cheap play at power forward tonight, take a look at Big Illy Style. He’ll have David West on him tonight, and I think he’ll struggle to contain Ersan on the perimeter. He’s had over 22 FDP in 3 of his last 5, and you’ll take that at his current salary.

Also Considered- Andrea Bargnani @ LAL- $5500, Ed Davis vs NYK- $6100

Fade- Tim Duncan vs CLE- $7200

Old man Timmy has really taken a backseat to Parker and Leonard recently, and hasn’t gone for more than 4.5x value in each of his last 9 games.


Play- Rudy Gobert vs HOU- $7700

I don’t think Houston has anyone with the size to matchup against Gobert on the glass tonight. He should be a lock for double digit rebounds, with a handful of blocks and steals mixed in as well.

Play- Ian Mahinmi vs MIL- $3800

All this guy needs is minutes and Roy Hibbert is questionable right now. If you are looking to squeeze Harden and LeBron into you’re lineup, Mahinmi might be the way to make it happen.

Also Considered- Cole Aldrich @ LAL- $4200, Timofey Mozgov @ SAS- $5300

Fade- Marcin Gortat vs MEM- $6700

Marcin The Machine has been very good recently, but I can’t play him against Memphis for almost $7k.

Good luck to everybody tonight. Keep your head up and keep grinding!

*Featured Image courtesy of Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports

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