The Anatomy of a Projection: Washington Redskins

Anthony Amico July 1, 2014 8
The Anatomy of a Projection: Washington Redskins

New HC Jay Gruden’s Pass/Run Splits Last 3 Seasons (All With CIN):

2013: 587/481
2012: 540/430
2011: 535/455
Total: 1662/1366 (54.9%/45.1%)

Andy Dalton Rush Attempts:

2013: 61
2012: 47
2011: 37
Total: 145 (10.6%)

RGIII Rush % w/WAS: 21.2% (in just 28 appearances)

Projecting a 523/497 Split for 2014

Griffin: 95 rushes (19.1%)
Miscellaneous: 18 rushes (3.6%)
Morris: 221 rushes (44.5%)
Helu: 147 rushes (29.6%)
Seastrunk: 16 rushes (3.2%)

RB Targets Under Gruden:

2013: 79
2012: 53
2011: 70
Total: 202 (12.2%)

WR1 Targets Under Gruden:

2013: 180
2012: 164
2011: 116
Total: 460 (27.7%)

WR2 Targets Under Gruden:

2013: 80
2012: 80
2011: 104
Total: 264 (15.9%)

TE Targets Under Gruden:

2013: 127
2012: 104
2011: 113
Total: 344 (20.7%)

Target Distribution and Yardage:

Garcon (25%) = 523* .25 = 131 targets* .6 = 79 rec* 13.9ypr = 1098 yds
Jackson (18.6%) = 523* .186 = 97 targets* .57 = 55 rec* 15.6ypr = 858 yds
Roberts (10.6%) = 523* .106 = 55 targets* .56 = 31 rec* 11.7ypr = 363 yds
Reed (18.7%) = 523* .187 = 98 targets* .7 = 69 rec* 10.8ypr = 745 yds
Helu (9.6%) = 523* .096 = 50 targets* .78 = 39 rec* 8.5ypr = 332 yds
Morris (2.7%) = 523* .027 = 14 targets* .71 = 10 rec* 7.8ypr = 78 yds

Final Projections

Robert Griffin III: 523 att, 335 comp, 7.7 YPA, 4027 yds, 24TD, 11INT, 95 rush, 599 yds, 4TD, 7 fum = 304.98 Points

Roy Helu: 147 rush, 4.2 YPC, 617 yds, 2TD, 39 rec, 332 yds, 2TD, 1 fum = 156.89 Points

Alfred Morris: 221 rush, 4.2 YPC, 928 yds, 7TD, 10 rec, 78 yds, 3 fum = 149.62 Points

Lache Seastrunk: 16 rush, 4.5 YPC, 72 yds = 7.2 Points

Pierre Garcon: 131 tar, 79 rec, 13.9 YPR, 1098 yds, 8TD, 3 rush, 18 yds = 238.61 Points

DeSean Jackson: 97 tar, 55 rec, 15.6 YPR, 858 yds, 5TD, 10 rush, 65 yds = 177.3 Points

Andre Roberts: 55 tar, 31 rec, 11.7 YPR, 363 yds, 2TD = 79.27 Points

Jordan Reed: 98 tar, 69 rec, 10.8 YPR, 745 yds, 6TD = 179.52 Points

 

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8 Comments »

  1. Adam July 1, 2014 at 2:07 pm - Reply

    Roy helu the rb to own in wash? Does that mean you think this backfield is undraftable?

    • Anthony Amico July 1, 2014 at 2:53 pm - Reply

      Quite the contrary, I think Helu presents fantastic value this season as a PPR play, especially if you are going with a Zero RB strategy. I will hopefully be presenting a post in the near future to further explain why I think he is the back to own.

    • Anthony Amico July 1, 2014 at 6:11 pm - Reply

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