The Anatomy of a Projection: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Source: bleacherreport.com

New OC Jeff Tedford’s Pass/Run Splits Last 9 Years as HC at Cal:

2012: 366/451
2011: 440/484
2010: 332/428
2009: 393/471
2008: 397/435
2007: 443/441
2006: 413/427
2005: 321/483
2004: 331/509
Total: 3436/4129 (45.4%/54.6%)

New HC Lovie Smith’s Pass/Run Splits as HC of Bears:

2012: 485/470
2011: 473/456
2010: 466/414
2009: 563/373
2008: 528/434
2007: 569/423
2006: 514/503
2005: 418/488
2004: 471/430
Total: 4487/3991 (52.9%/47.1%)

Projecting 523/477 Split for 2014

RB1/RB2 Carries Under Tedford:

2012: 146/126
2011: 252/72
2010: 231/69
2009: 183/141
2008: 194/142
2007: 305/29
2006: 223/119
2005: 196/132
2004: 289/71
Total: 2019/901 (69.1%/30.9%)

McCown: 40 rushes (8.4%)
Miscellaneous: 48 rushes (10.1%)
Martin: 269 rushes
Sims: 120 rushes

Top 2 RB Receptions/Total Receptions Under Tedford:

2012: 22/212
2011: 13/246
2010: 27/185
2009: 47/214
2008: 54/209
2007: 35/262
2006: 46/245
2005: 22/167
2004: 40/219
Total: 306/1959 (15.6%)

Passing TD Under Tedford:

2012: 13
2011: 17
2010: 16
2009: 18
2008: 25
2007: 21
2006: 25
2005: 22
2004: 27
Total: 184 (5.355%)

INT Under Tedford:

2012: 13
2011: 12
2010: 11
2009: 8
2008: 10
2007: 14
2006: 14
2005: 17
2004: 8
Total: 107 (3.1%)

Josh McCown in 5 games started and finished last season (per game numbers courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits App):

Att: 38.2
Comp: 25.4 (66.5%)
Yards: 308.6 (8.08)
TD: 2.2 (5.76%)
INT: .2 (.52%)

Brandon Marshall w/McCown (per game, 5 games):

Tar: 10.4 (27.2%)
Rec: 6.2 (59.6%)
Yards: 82.2 (13.3 YPR)
TD: .4 (18.2%)

Alshon Jeffery w/McCown (per game, 5 games):

Tar: 10.4 (27.2%)
Rec: 6.6 (63.5%)
Yards: 103.6 (15.7 YPR)
TD: .8 (36.4%)

Martellus Bennett w/McCown (per game, 5 games):

Tar: 5.2 (13.6%)
Rec: 3.4 (65.4%)
Yards: 40.6 (11.9 YPR)
TD: .2 (9.1%)

Target Distribution and Yardage:

Jackson (30%) = 523* .3 = 157 targets* .52 = 82 rec* 15.7ypr = 1287 yds
Evans (23%) = 523* .23 = 120 targets* .5 = 60 rec* 14.5ypr = 870 yds
Seferian-Jenkins (12%) = 523* .12 = 64 targets* .65 = 42 rec* 12.0ypr = 504 yds
Sims (8.4%) = 523* .084 = 44 targets* .75 = 33 rec* 7.5ypr = 248 yds
Martin (3.6%) = 523* .036 = 19 targets* .69 = 13 rec* 8.0ypr = 104 yds

Final Projections

Josh McCown: 523 att, 298 comp, 7.19 YPA, 3760 yds, 28TD, 16INT, 40 rush, 160 yds, 1TD, 7 fum = 238.41 Points

Doug Martin: 269 rush, 4.3 YPC, 1157 yds, 7TD, 13 rec, 104 yds, 1 fum = 180.07 Points

Charles Sims: 120 rush, 4.2 YPC, 504 yds, 2TD, 33 rec, 248 yds, 1TD = 126.15 Points

Vincent Jackson: 157 tar, 82 rec, 15.7 YPR, 1287 yds, 9TD = 264.74 Points

Mike Evans: 120 tar, 60 rec, 14.5 YPR, 870 yds, 7TD = 189 Points

Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 64 tar, 42 rec, 12.0 YPR, 504 yds, 4TD = 116.4 Points

Links to Previous Teams

Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders

San Diego Chargers
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints

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Anthony is the Lead Fantasy Football Writer for No Coast Bias and a founder of JAMSportz.wordpress.com. When he isn't writing about and playing fantasy football, he is a high school math teacher and football coach. Follow Anthony on twitter @amicsta (link below) for all his latest thoughts and opinions as well as updates for new articles to help you win your league.

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