Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: San Diego Chargers

Pass/Run Splits Under McCoy Last 2 Seasons:

2013(SD): 544/486
2012(DEN): 588/481
Total: 1132/967 (53.9%/46.1%)

Projecting 566/484 Split for 2014

Rivers: 28 rushes (5.8%)
Miscellaneous: 17 rushes (3.5%)
Mathews: 272 rushes (56.2%)
Brown: 103 rushes (21.3%)
Woodhead: 64 rushes (13.2%)

RB Targets Under McCoy:

2013: 127
2012: 84
Total: 211 (18.6%), Projecting 113 RB Targets in 2014

TE Targets Under McCoy:

2013: 146
2012: 149
Total: 295 (26%), Projecting 147 TE Targets in 2014

Target Distribution and Yardage:

Allen (23%) = 566* .23 = 130 targets* .67 = 87 rec* 14.5ypr = 1262 yds
Floyd (14.5%) = 566* .145 = 82 targets* .6 = 49 rec* 17.3ypr = 848 yds
Royal (12%) = 566* .12 = 68 targets* .62 = 42 rec* 12.1ypr = 508 yds
Gates (15.5%) = 566* .155 = 88 targets* .66 = 58 rec* 11.3 ypr = 655 yds
Green (10.4%) = 566* .104 = 59 targets* .59 = 35 rec* 14.2ypr = 497 yds
Woodhead (11.3%) = 566* .113 = 64 targets* .77 = 49 rec* 8.5ypr = 417 yds
Brown (5.7%) = 566* .057 = 32 targets* .76 = 24 rec* 8ypr = 192 yds
Mathews(3%) = 566* .03 = 17 targets* .78 = 13 rec* 7.6ypr = 99 yds

Final Projections

Philip Rivers: 566 att, 379 comp, 8.1 YPA, 4585 yds, 34TD, 13INT, 28 rush, 45 yds, 7 fum = 283.88 Points

Ryan Mathews: 272 rush, 4.4 YPC, 1197 yds, 7TD, 13 rec, 99 yds, 1 fum = 183.56 Points

Danny Woodhead: 64 rush, 4.0 YPC, 256 yds, 1TD, 49 rec, 417 yds, 3TD = 140.25 Points

Donald Brown: 103 rush, 4.5 YPC, 464 yds, 2TD, 24 rec, 192 yds, 1TD = 107.55 Points

Keenan Allen:130 tar, 87 rec, 14.5 YPR, 1262 yds, 10TD, 1 fum = 271.15 Points

Malcolm Floyd: 82 tar, 49 rec, 17.3 YPR, 848 yds, 5TD = 163.77 Points

Eddie Royal: 68 tar, 42 rec, 12.1 YPR, 508 yds, 3TD, 3 rush, 21 yds = 112.92 Points

Antonio Gates: 88 tar, 58 rec, 11.3 YPR, 655 yds, 4TD = 147.54 Points

Ladarius Green: 59 tar, 35 rec, 14.2 YPR, 497 yds, 6TD = 120.7 Points

Links to Previous Teams

Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
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