The Anatomy of a Projection: Philadelphia Eagles

Nick Foles in 9 games started and finished:

Attempts: 258
Completions: 173 (67%)
Yards: 2565 (9.94 YPA)
TD: 24 (9.3%)
INT: 2 (.775%)
Rush: 51 (17.5%)
Yards: 195 (3.8 YPC)
TD: 3

Total Team rushes: 33, 25, 37, 33, 34, 46, 13, 36, 34 = 291

Prorated run/pass ratio: 517/459 (53%/47%)

Faster Tempo Expected This Season: Projecting 543/481 Split for 2014

Foles: 84 rushes (17.5%)
Miscellaneous: 5 rushes (1%)
McCoy: 288 rushes (59.9%)
Sproles: 64 rushes (13.3%)
Polk: 40 rushes (8.3%)

RB Targets in 9 Games: 41 (15.89%), Projecting 86 RB Targets in 2014

Cooper In 9 Games:

Targets: 58 (22.5%)
Receptions: 33 (56.9%)
Yards: 654 (19.8 YPR)
TD: 7 (29.2%)

TE’s in 9 Games:

Targets: 66 (25.58%)
Receptions: 45 (68.2%)
Yards: 587 (13.0 YPR)
TD: 8 (33.3%)

DJax in 9 Games:

Targets: 57 (22.1%)
Receptions: 43 (75.4%)
Yards: 723 (16.8 YPR)
TD: 6 (25%)

Avant in 9 Games:

Targets: 30 (11.63%)
Receptions: 17 (56.7%)
Yards: 182 (10.7 YPR)
TD: 1 (4.2%)

Target Distribution and Yardage:

Cooper (20%) = 543* .2 = 109 targets* .57 = 62 rec* 15.0ypr = 930 yds
Maclin (18.8%) = 543* .188 = 102 targets* .62 = 63 rec* 14.5ypr = 914 yds
Matthews (11.63%) = 543* .1163 = 63 targets* .6 = 38 rec* 12.0ypr = 456 yds
Ertz (14%) = 543* .14 = 76 targets* .64 = 49 rec* 13.0ypr = 637 yds
Celek(10.3%) = 543* .103 = 56 targets* .68 = 38 rec* 14.0ypr = 532 yds
Sproles (11.8%) = 543* .118 = 64 targets* .75 = 48 rec* 9.7ypr = 466 yds
McCoy (7.4%) = 543* .074 = 40 targets* .75 = 30 rec* 9.4ypr = 282 yds
Polk (2.2%) = 543* .022 = 12 targets* .75 = 9 rec* 10.0ypr = 90 yds

Final Projections

Nick Foles: 543 att, 353 comp, 8.3 YPA, 4507 yds, 33TD, 9INT, 84 rush, 319 yds, 3TD, 5 fum = 334.18 Points

LeSean McCoy: 288 rush, 5.2 YPC, 1498 yds, 11TD, 30 rec, 282 yds, 1TD, 1 fum = 278.96 Points

Darren Sproles: 64 rush, 4.4 YPC, 282 yds, 2TD, 48 rec, 466 yds, 2TD = 146.72 Points

Chris Polk: 40 rush, 4.8 YPC, 192 yds, 2TD, 9 rec, 90 yds = 49.2 Points

Riley Cooper: 109 tar, 62 rec, 15.0 YPR, 930 yds, 10TD = 215.0 Points

Jeremy Maclin: 102 tar, 63 rec, 14.5 YPR, 914 yds, 6TD = 190.35 Points

Jordan Matthews: 63 tar, 38 rec, 12.0 YPR, 456 yds, 2TD = 95.6 Points

Zach Ertz: 76 tar, 49 rec, 13.0 YPR, 637 yds, 6TD = 148.7 Points

Brent Celek: 56 tar, 38 rec, 14.0 YPR, 532 yds, 4TD = 115.2 Points

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