The Anatomy of a Projection: Oakland Raiders

Pass/Run Splits Under OC Greg Olson:

2013(OAK): 519/437
2011(TAM): 588/346
2010(TAM): 494/431
2009(TAM): 525/403
2008(TAM): 562/451
2007(STL): 574/404
2006(STL): 592/424
2005(DET): 520/404
2004(DET): 505/407
Total: 4879/3707 (56.8%/43.2%)

Projecting a 542/412 Split for 2014

QB Rushes Under Olson:

2013: 97
2011: 66
2010: 72
2009: 58
2008: 43
2007: 18
2006: 21
2005: 41
2004: 48
Total: 464 (12.5%)

Raiders BYE is week 5, Carr could be under center by week 6 (Jets, Texans, Patriots, Dolphins first 4 games)

Carr: 45 rushes (10.9%)
Schaub: 5 rushes (1.2%)
Miscellaneous: 11 rushes (2.7%)
MJD: 160 rushes (38.8%)
McFadden: 128 rushes (31.1%)
Murray: 53 rushes (12.9%)
Reece: 10 rushes (2.4%)

RB Targets Under Olson (Target Data Not Available Before 2006):

2013: 143
2011: 130
2010: 95
2009: 93
2008: 138
2007: 123
2006: 155
Total: 877 (22.76%), Projecting 136 RB Targets in 2014

Target Distribution and Yardage:

Jones (20%) = 542* .2 = 108 targets* .57 = 62 rec* 14.2ypr = 880 yds
Streater (16%) = 542* .16 = 87 targets* .57 = 50 rec* 14.9ypr = 745 yds
Holmes (16%) = 542* .16 = 87 targets* .5 = 44 rec* 17.0ypr = 748 yds
Ausberry (8%) = 542* .08 = 43 targets* .58 = 25 rec* 12.8ypr = 320 yds
MJD (8.86%) = 542* .0886 = 48 targets* .75 = 36 rec* 7.5ypr = 270 yds
Reece (7.38%) = 542* .0738 = 40 targets* .66 = 17 rec* 10.7ypr = 182 yds
McFadden (5.9%) = 542* .059 = 32 targets* .72 = 23 rec* 6.5ypr = 150 yds
Murray (2.95%) = 542* .0295 = 16 targets* .7 = 11 rec* 8ypr = 88 yds

Final Projections

Derek Carr: 407 att, 248 comp, 7.45 YPA, 3032 yds, 15TD, 18INT, 45 rush, 180 yds, 2TD, 5 fum = 165.29 Points

Matt Schaub: 135 att, 85 comp, 7.0 YPA, 945 yds, 5TD, 4INT, 5 rush, 10 yds, 2 fum = 46.8 Points

Maurice Jones-Drew: 160 rush, 3.8 YPC, 608 yds, 5TD, 36 rec, 270 yds, 1TD, 1 fum = 158.8 Points

Darren McFadden: 128 rush, 3.5 YPC, 448 yds, 2TD, 23 rec, 150 yds, 1 fum = 93.75 Points

Latavius Murray: 53 rush, 4.4 YPC, 233 yds, 1TD, 11 rec, 88 yds = 49.12 Points

Marcel Reece: 10 rush, 4.2 YPC, 42 yds, 17 rec, 182 yds, 1TD = 45.39 Points

James Jones: 108 tar, 62 rec, 14.2 YPR, 880 yds, 6TD = 186.04 Points

Rod Streater: 87 tar, 50 rec, 14.9 YPR, 745 yds, 4TD, 2 rush, 16 yds = 150.1 Points

Andre Holmes: 87 tar, 44 rec, 17.0 YPR, 748 yds, 4TD = 142.8 Points

David Ausberry: 43 tar, 25 rec, 12.8 YPR, 320 yds, 1TD = 63.0 Points

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