Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: New York Jets

OC Marty Mornhinweg pass/run last 4 seasons:

2013(Jets): 480/493
2012(Eagles): 618/413
2011(Eagles): 554/450
2010(Eagles): 561/428
Total: 2213/1784 (55.4%/44.6%)

Jets last 4 games of 2013:
25/32
28/28
37/39
28/42
Total: 118/141 (45.6%/54.4%)

Jets pass/run under Rex Ryan:
2013: 480/493
2012: 493/494
2011: 547/443
2010: 525/534
2009: 393/607
Total: 2438/2571 (48.7/51.3)

This is Rex’s offense; expect it to be run heavy, projecting 487/513 split

Geno rush attempts/rushTD/team attempts/team rushTD last 7 games started and finished
6/1/52/1
3/0/28/0
6/1/36/2
5/1/32/2
6/0/28/1
10/1/39/1
10/1/42/2

Total: 46/5/257/9 (17.9% of rushes, 55.6% of rush TD)

Geno: 92 rushes (17.9%)
Miscellaneous: 11 rushes (2.1%)
Johnson: 224 rushes (43.7%)
Ivory: 146 rushes (28.5%)
Powell: 40 rushes (7.8%)

RB Targets Under Rex Ryan:
2013: 69
2012: 80
2011: 121
2010: 106
2009: 58
Total: 434 (17.8%), projecting 87 RB targets in 2014

Target Distribution and Yards:
Decker (25%) = 487* .25 = 122 targets* .58 = 71 Rec * 13.8ypc = 980 yds
Kerley (20%) = 487* .2 = 97 targets* .6 = 58 Rec* 12.2ypc = 708 yds
Amaro (18%) = 487* .18 = 88 targets* .65 = 57 Rec* 14ypc = 798 yds
Hill (10%) = 487* .1 = 49 targets* .5 = 25 Rec* 17ypc = 425 yds
Johnson (11.3%) = 487* .113 =55 targets* .75 = 41 Rec* 7.4ypc = 303 yds
Powell (5.1%) = 487* .051 = 25 targets* .61 = 15 Rec* 7.8ypc = 117 yds
Ivory (1.4%) = 487* .014 = 7 targets* .42 = 3 Rec* 6.25ypc = 19 yds

Final Projections

Geno Smith: 487 att, 282 comp, 7.0 YPA, 3409 yds, 20TD, 17INT, 92 rush, 469 yds, 5TD, 6 fum = 247.26 Points

Chris Johnson: 224 rush, 4.2 YPC, 941 yds, 2TD, 41 rec, 303 yds, 2 TD, 2 fum = 187.42 Points

Chris Ivory: 146 rush, 4.6 YPC, 672 yds, 6TD, 7 rec, 44 yds, 0 fum = 114.54 Points

Bilal Powell: 40 rush, 4.0 YPC, 160 yds, 15 rec, 117 yds, 0TD, 0 fum = 42.7 Points

Eric Decker: 122 tar, 71 rec, 13.8 YPR, 980 yds, 8TD = 216.98 Points

Jeremy Kerley: 97 tar, 58 rec, 12.2 YPR, 708 yds, 3TD, 3 rush, 14 yds = 148.12 Points

Stephen Hill: 49 tar, 25 rec, 17.0 YPR, 425 yds, 1TD = 73.5 Points

Jace Amaro: 88 tar, 57 rec, 14.0 YPR, 798 yds, 5TD = 166.8 Points

Links to Previous Teams

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots

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