Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: New York Giants

Pass/Run Splits Last 5 Seasons for Packers (New OC Ben McAdoo was QB and TE’s coach)

2013: 570/459
2012: 558/433
2011: 552/395
2010: 541/421
2009: 541/438
Total: 2762/2146 (56.3%/43.7%)

Projecting 569/441 Split for 2014

Manning: 21 rushes (4.8%)
Miscellaneous: 20 rushes (4.5%)
Jennings: 240 rushes (54%)
Williams: 104 rushes (23.6%)
Wilson: 56 rushes (12.7%)

Randall Cobb Usage Last 2 Seasons (per game numbers courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits App):

Targets: 7.19 (20.5%)
Receptions: 5.29 (73.6%)
Yards: 66.05 (12.5 YPR)
TD: .57 (25.4%)
Rush: .67
Rush Yards: 10

Jordy Nelson Usage Last 2 Seasons (per game numbers, w/Cobb and Rodgers):

Targets: 7.24 (20.7%)
Receptions: 4.86 (67.1%)
Yards: 77.24 (15.9 YPR)
TD: .67 (29.9%)

James Jones Usage Last 2 Seasons (per game numbers, w/Cobb, Nelson, Rodgers)

Targets: 6.35 (18.1%)
Receptions: 4.2 (66.1%)
Yards: 55.6 (13.2 YPR)
TD: .75 (33.5%)

Greg Jennings 2012 Usage (per game number, w/Cobb)

Targets: 7.14
Receptions: 4 (56%)
Yards: 35.14 (8.8 YPR)
TD: .29

TE Targets Last 2 Seasons:

2013: 112
2012: 101
Total: 213 (18.9%)

RB Targets Last 2 Seasons:

2013: 81
2012: 87
Total: 168 (14.9%), Projecting 85 RB Targets for 2014

Target Distribution and Yardage:

Cruz (20.5%) = 569* .205 = 117 targets* .65 = 76 rec* 14.0ypr = 1064 yds
Randle (19.4%) = 569* .194 = 110 targets* .6 = 66 rec* 14.9ypr = 983 yds
Beckham (16%) = 569* .16 = 91 targets* .58 = 53 rec* 12.5ypr = 663 yds
Robinson (11.3%) = 569* .113 = 64 targets* .55 = 35 rec* 11.0ypr = 385 yds
Jennings (9.8%) = 569* .098 = 56 targets* .7 = 39 rec* 7.5ypr = 293 yds
Wilson (2.8%) = 569* .028 = 16 targets* .55 = 9 rec* 7ypr = 63 yds
Williams (.9%) = 569* .009 = 5 targets* .6 = 3 rec* 6.5ypr = 20 yds

Final Projections

Eli Manning: 569 att, 347 comp, 7.4 YPA, 4211 yds, 26TD, 17INT, 21 rush, 40 yds, 5 fum = 232.42 Points

Rashad Jennings: 240 rush, 4.2 YPC, 1008 yds, 5TD, 39 rec, 293 yds, 1TD = 205.05 Points

Andre Williams: 104 rush, 4.5 YPC, 468 yds, 4TD, 3 rec, 20yds = 75.75 Points

David Wilson: 56 rush, 4.0 YPC, 224 yds, 9 rec, 63 yds, 1 fum = 36.7 Points

Victor Cruz: 117 tar, 76 rec, 14.0 YPR, 1064 yds, 7TD, 10 rush, 70 yds, 1 fum = 229.4 Points

Rueben Randle: 110 tar, 66 rec, 14.9 YPR, 983 yds, 8TD = 212.34 Points

Odell Beckham Jr.: 91 tar, 53 rec, 12.5 YPR, 663 yds, 4TD = 143.25 Points

Adrien Robinson: 64 tar, 35 rec, 11.0 YPR, 385 yds, 2TD = 85.5 Points

 

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8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. Lenny Pappano

    July 7, 2014 at 2:30 pm

    Anthony, I like the methodology. Your projections make Eli a starting fantasy QB for 2014, which I agree with.

    Jennings might actually perform better than expected — and, no, I’m not a Giant fan! 😉

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