Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: New England Patriots

OC Josh McDaniels pass/run last 2 seasons with NE:

2013: 628/470

2012: 641/523

Total: 1269/993 (56.1%/43.9%, 1131 plays/season)

Projecting 617/483 split for 2014

Brady 55 total rushes last two seasons (5.5%)

Belichick rush offense hard to predict. Ridley especially very volatile based on ball security.

Brady: 27 rushes (5.6%)
Miscellaneous: 8 rushes (1.7%)
Bolden: 91 rushes (19%)
White: 53 rushes (11%)
Vereen: 112 rushes (23.2%)
Ridley: 192 rushes (40%)

Brady 2 year averages: 7.25 YPA, .04664 TD/ATT, .015 INT/ATT

How many games will Gronk play? Right now expected week 1, but important to see what happens if he’s out

Receptions/Targets/Yards/TD per game with_____without Gronkowski (per game numbers courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits App):

Dobson: 4/7/65.5/.75_____3/6.29/36.71/.14
Edelman: 5/7/52/.43_____7.78/11.33/76.89/.33
Amendola: 4.17/6/48.17/.33_____4.83/7.83/57.33/0
Vereen: 8.25/11.25/78.75/.25_____3.5/6/28/.5

Brady attempts/YPA/TD/INT per game with_____without Gronkowski:

40.57/7.81/1.86/.71_____38.22/6.27/1.33/.67

Target Distribution and Yards:

Gronkowski (22%) = 617*.22 = 136 targets* .63 = 86 Rec* 14.4ypr = 1238 yds
Dobson (18%) = 617*.18 = 111 targets* .57 = 63 Rec* 15ypr = 945 yds
Edelman (18%) = 617* .18 = 111 targets* .7 = 78 Rec* 10.2ypr = 796 yds
Amendola (14%) = 617* .14 = 86 targets* .675 = 58 Rec* 11.9ypr = 690 yds
Vereen (16%) = 617* .16 = 99 targets* .67 = 66 Rec* 10.5ypr = 693 yds
Bolden (4%) = 617* .04 = 25 targets* .74 = 18 Rec * 7.1ypr = 128 yds
Ridley (2%) = 617* .02 = 12 targets* .61 = 7 Rec* 6.6ypr = 46 yds
White (2%) = 617* .02 = 12 targets* .7 = 8 Rec* 7.5ypr = 60 yds

Final Projections

Tom Brady: 617 att, 383 comp, 7.3 YPA, 4504 yds, 30TD, 9INT, 27 rush, 27 yds, 2TD, 5 fum = 286.86 Points

Stevan Ridley: 192 rush, 4.4 ypc, 845 yds, 10TD, 7 rec, 46 yds, 0TD, 3 fum = 153.10 Points

Shane Vereen: 112 rush, 4.4 ypc, 493 yds, 4TD, 66 rec, 693 yds, 4TD, 0 fum = 232.58 Points

Brandon Bolden: 91 rush, 4.9 ypc, 446, 5TD, 18 rec, 128 yds, 0TD, 0 fum = 105.37 Points

James White: 53 rush, 4.2 ypc, 223 yds, 1TD, 8 rec, 60 yds, 0TD, 0 fum = 42.26 Points

Aaron Dobson: 111 tar, 63 rec, 15.0 ypr, 945 yds, 7TD = 199.5 Points

Julian Edelman: 111 tar, 78 rec, 10.2 ypr, 796 yds, 4TD, 3 rush, 21 yds = 183.66 Points

Danny Amendola: 86 tar, 58 rec, 11.9 ypr, 690 yds, 2 TD = 139.02 Points

Rob Gronkowski: 136 tar, 86 rec, 14.4 ypr, 1238 yds, 12 TD = 281.84 Points

Links to Previous Teams

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

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