Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Miami Dolphins

Starting facts about new offense:

  • New OC Bill Lazor with Eagles: 500 runs to 508 passes
  • Expect a similar balance in MIA if possible
  • Offensive line not as good as PHI, but improved from last year
  • Expecting a “Philly Lite” kind of offense

Nick Foles in 9 games started and finished:

173/258 2565yd 24TD/2INT (9.94 YPA)

51 rush 195yd 3TD (17.5% of rush attempts)

 

Total Team rushes: 33, 25, 37, 33, 34, 46, 13, 36, 34 = 291

 

Prorated run/pass ratio: 517/459

 

Lazor as OC of Virginia (run/pass)

2010: 419/443

2011: 496/443

2012: 417/474

Total: 1332/1360 (49.5%/51.5%)

 

Projected 500/500 split for MIA. High volatility in outcomes

 

Tannehill 88 rush attempts (17.6%)

Moreno 187 attempts (37.4%)

Miller 200 attempts (40%)

Other 25 attempts (5%)

 

RB received 16.3% of available targets in PHI = 82 targets of 500

Moreno: 50 targets (10%)

Miller: 32 (6.4%)

 

Receivers/Tight Ends:

Wallace (25%) = 500*.25 = 125 targets * .58 = 73 Rec * 15ypr = 1095 yds

Hartline (18%) = 500*.18 = 90 targets* .565 = 51 Rec * 14.6ypr = 745 yds

Clay (17%) = 500*.17 = 85 targets* .64 = 54 Rec* 12.5ypr = 675 yds

Landry (14%) = 500*.14 = 70 targets* .525 = 37 Rec* 12ypr = 444 yds

 

Final Projections

Ryan Tannehill: 500 att, 310 comp, 7.5 YPA, 3750 yds, 26TD, 14INT, 88 rush, 396 yds, 3TD, 6 fum = 271.6 Points

Knowshon Moreno: 187 rush, 4.0 ypc, 748 yds, 6TD, 35 rec, 263 yds, 1TD, 0 fum = 178.05 Points

Lamar Miller: 200 rush, 4.5 ypc, 900 yds, 5TD, 24 rec, 204 yds, 1TD, 0 fum = 170.4 Points

Mike Wallace: 125 tar, 73 rec, 15.0 ypr, 1095 yds, 7TD, 3 rush, 24 yds = 226.9 Points

Brian Hartline: 90 tar, 51 rec, 14.6 ypr, 744 yds, 3TD = 143.46 Points

Jarvis Landry: 70 tar, 37 rec, 12.0 ypr, 444 yds, 3TD = 99.4 Points

Charles Clay: 85 tar, 54 rec, 12.5 ypr, 675 yds, 6TD = 157.5 Points

Links to Previous Teams

Buffalo Bills

9 Comments

9 Comments

  1. PHins

    May 26, 2014 at 10:50 pm

    Dion Jordan, Jamar Taylor and Will Davis were all injured last year, and with the upcoming season being their first healthy one, how will they do on the field? We give our insight into this here! http://phinsnews.com/what-will-these-rookie-sophomores-do-for-the-dolphins/

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