The Anatomy of a Projection: Miami Dolphins

Starting facts about new offense:

• New OC Bill Lazor with Eagles: 500 runs to 508 passes
• Expect a similar balance in MIA if possible
• Offensive line not as good as PHI, but improved from last year
• Expecting a “Philly Lite” kind of offense

Nick Foles in 9 games started and finished:

173/258 2565yd 24TD/2INT (9.94 YPA)

51 rush 195yd 3TD (17.5% of rush attempts)

Total Team rushes: 33, 25, 37, 33, 34, 46, 13, 36, 34 = 291

Prorated run/pass ratio: 517/459

Lazor as OC of Virginia (run/pass)

2010: 419/443

2011: 496/443

2012: 417/474

Total: 1332/1360 (49.5%/51.5%)

Projected 500/500 split for MIA. High volatility in outcomes

Tannehill 88 rush attempts (17.6%)

Moreno 187 attempts (37.4%)

Miller 200 attempts (40%)

Other 25 attempts (5%)

RB received 16.3% of available targets in PHI = 82 targets of 500

Moreno: 50 targets (10%)

Miller: 32 (6.4%)

Receivers/Tight Ends:

Wallace (25%) = 500*.25 = 125 targets * .58 = 73 Rec * 15ypr = 1095 yds

Hartline (18%) = 500*.18 = 90 targets* .565 = 51 Rec * 14.6ypr = 745 yds

Clay (17%) = 500*.17 = 85 targets* .64 = 54 Rec* 12.5ypr = 675 yds

Landry (14%) = 500*.14 = 70 targets* .525 = 37 Rec* 12ypr = 444 yds

Final Projections

Ryan Tannehill: 500 att, 310 comp, 7.5 YPA, 3750 yds, 26TD, 14INT, 88 rush, 396 yds, 3TD, 6 fum = 271.6 Points

Knowshon Moreno: 187 rush, 4.0 ypc, 748 yds, 6TD, 35 rec, 263 yds, 1TD, 0 fum = 178.05 Points

Lamar Miller: 200 rush, 4.5 ypc, 900 yds, 5TD, 24 rec, 204 yds, 1TD, 0 fum = 170.4 Points

Mike Wallace: 125 tar, 73 rec, 15.0 ypr, 1095 yds, 7TD, 3 rush, 24 yds = 226.9 Points

Brian Hartline: 90 tar, 51 rec, 14.6 ypr, 744 yds, 3TD = 143.46 Points

Jarvis Landry: 70 tar, 37 rec, 12.0 ypr, 444 yds, 3TD = 99.4 Points

Charles Clay: 85 tar, 54 rec, 12.5 ypr, 675 yds, 6TD = 157.5 Points

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