Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Kansas City Chiefs

Pass/Run Split in 2013:

546/442 (55.3%/44.7%)

Pass/Run Split Andy Reid’s last 5 Seasons with Eagles:

2012: 618/413
2011: 554/450
2010: 561/428
2009: 553/384
2008: 606/427
Total: 2892/2102 (57.9%/42.1%)

Projecting a 566/434 split for 2014

Smith: 80 rushes (18.43%)
Miscellaneous: 17 rushes (3.92%)
Charles: 241 rushes (55.53%)
Davis: 80 rushes (18.43%)
Thomas: 16 rushes (3.69%)

Andy Reid RB Targets Last 6 Seasons:

2013: 153
2012: 89
2011: 77
2010: 127
2009: 116
2008: 131
Total: 693 (20.2%)

Andy Reid TE Targets Last 6 Seasons:

2013: 80
2012: 128
2011: 115
2010: 96
2009: 120
2008: 105
Celek Total (2009-2012): 373 (16.3%)
Eagles Total: 564 (19.5%)
Total: 644 (18.7%)

Target Distribution and Yardage:

Bowe (20.5%) = 566* .205 = 116 targets* .55 = 64 rec* 12.4ypr = 794 yds
Charles (19%) = 566*. 19 = 108 targets* .7 = 76 rec* 9ypr = 684 yds
Kelce (16.3%) = 566* .163 = 92 targets* .635 = 58 rec* 12.0ypr = 696 yds
Avery (13.25%) = 566* .1325 = 75 targets* .55 = 41 rec* 14.3ypr = 586 yds
Thomas (8.83%) = 566* .0883 = 50 targets* .62 = 31 rec* 8.7ypr = 270 yds
Davis (4.6%) = 566* .046 = 26 targets* .73 = 19 rec* 7.0ypr = 133 yds

Final Projections

Alex Smith: 566 att, 345 comp, 6.55 YPA, 3707 yds, 26TD, 8INT, 80 rush, 409 yds, 1TD, 6 fum = 271.19 Points

Jamaal Charles: 241 rush, 5.0 YPC, 1205 yds, 12TD, 76 rec, 684 yds, 5TD, 2 fum = 364.9 Points

Knile Davis: 80 rush, 5.0 YPC, 400 yds, 4TD, 19 rec, 133 yds, 1 fum = 95.3 Points

De’Anthony Thomas: 16 rush, 70 yds, 31 rec, 270 yds, 1TD = 71.01 Points

Dwayne Bowe: 116 tar, 64 rec, 12.4 YPR, 794 yds, 7TD = 185.36 Points

Donnie Avery: 75 tar, 41 rec, 14.3 YPR, 586 yds, 2TD, 2 rush, 10 yds = 112.63 Points

Travis Kelce: 92 tar, 58 rec, 12.0 YPR, 696 yds, 6TD = 163.6 Points

Links to Previous Teams

Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos

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