Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Jacksonville Jaguars

Jags seem to be modeling team after the Seahawks. Pass/Run Splits in Bradley’s tenure:

2009: 609/395
2010: 544/385
2011: 509/444
2012: 405/536
Total: 2067/1760 (54%/46%)

Projecting a 517/440 split for 2014

Marshawn Lynch carries as lead back of SEA/Total non-QB Rushes:

2011: 285/400 (71.25%)
2012: 315/438 (71.92%)
2013: 301/409 (73.59%)
Total: 901/1247 (72.25%)

Henne: 28 rushes (6.36%)
Miscellaneous: 9 rushes (2%)
Gerhart: 298 rushes (67.73%)
Todman: 57 rushes (12.95%)
Robinson: 48 rushes (10.91%)

RB Targets/Total last 5 seasons w/Bradley on staff:

2009: 140/609
2010: 102/544
2011: 103/509
2012: 76/405
2013: 116/592
Total: 537/2659 (20.2%), projecting 104 RB Targets in 2014

Target Distribution and Yards:

Shorts (22%) = 517* .22 = 114 targets* .524 = 60 rec* 14.5ypr = 870 yds
Lee (19%) = 517* .19 = 98 targets* .56 = 55 rec* 12.5ypr = 688 yds
Robinson (17%) = 517* .17 =88 targets* .6 = 53 rec* 15ypr = 795 yds
Lewis (11.6%) = 517* .116 = 60 targets* .587 = 35 rec* 12.1ypr = 424 yds
Gerhart (12.2%) = 517* .122 = 63 targets* .75 = 47 rec* 7.8ypr = 367 yds
Robinson (4.8%) = 517* .048 = 25 targets* .7 = 18 rec* 8ypr = 144 yds
Todman (3.1%) = 517* .031 = 16 targets* .56 = 9 rec* 7.7ypr = 69 yds

Final Projections

Chad Henne: 517 att, 310 comp, 6.9 YPA, 3567 yds, 18TD, 16INT, 28 rush, 84 yds, 2 fum = 187.09 Points

Toby Gerhart: 298 rush, 3.8 YPC, 1132 yds, 6TD, 47 rec, 367 yds, 1TD, 3 fum = 235.9 Points

Denard Robinson: 48 rush, 4.0 YPC, 192 yds, 18 rec, 144 yds = 51.6 Points

Jordan Todman: 57 rush, 3.6 YPC, 205 yds, 1TD, 9 rec, 69 yds = 42.25 Points

Cecil Shorts: 114 tar, 60 rec, 14.5 YPR, 870 yds, 5TD = 177.0 Points

Allen Robinson: 88 tar, 53 rec, 15.0 YPR, 795 yds, 4TD = 156.5 Points

Marqise Lee: 98 tar, 55 rec, 12.5 YPR, 688 yds, 3TD, 5 rush, 25 yds = 144.25 Points

Marcedes Lewis: 60 tar, 35 rec, 12.1 YPR, 424 yds, 4TD = 101.35 Points

Links to Previous Teams

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots

New York Jets

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts

5 Comments

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

To Top