Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Indianapolis Colts

Pass/Run Splits Last 10 Games of 2013:

38/31
40/14
52/14
36/32
39/15
32/25
46/12
32/36
37/34
41/28
Total: 393/241 (62%/38%)
16 Games: 629/386

Projecting a 629/386 split for 2014

Andrew Luck Last 10 Games:

Luck YPA: 6.45
Luck TD: 16
Luck INT: 6
Luck rush attempts: 39
Luck rush yards: 223
Luck rush TD: 2

Luck: 62 rushes (16%)
Miscellaneous: 19 rushes (5%)
Richardson: 240 rushes (62.18%)
Bradshaw: 49 rushes (12.67%)
Ballard: 16 rushes (4.15%)

Richardson Targets/Receptions/Yards Last 10 Games (Total RB Targets in (-) ):

0/0/0 (5)
3/2/33 (6)
5/3/33 (14)
5/5/31 (7)
2/2/11 (4)
0/0/0 (7)
6/5/68 (13)
6/4/38 (6)
5/3/15 (9)
2/2/17 (8)
Total: 34/26/246 (79)

Target Distribution and Yards:

Hilton (25%) = 629* .25 = 157 targets* .5764 = 90 rec* 14.1ypr = 1269 yds
Wayne (18%) = 629* .18 = 113 targets* .57 = 64 rec* 12.9ypr = 826 yds
Nicks (15%) = 629* .15 = 94 targets* .56 = 53 rec* 16.0ypr = 848 yds
Rogers (4%) = 629* .04 = 25 targets* .61 = 15 rec* 13.7ypr = 206 yds
Moncrief (3%) = 629*.03 = 19 targets* .55 = 10 rec* 17.0ypr = 170 yds
Allen (13%) = 629* .13 = 82 targets* .68 = 56 rec* 11.8ypr = 661 yds
Fleener (7%) = 629* .07 = 44 targets* .57 = 25 rec* 11.4ypr = 285 yds
Richardson (12%) = 629* .12 = 75 targets* .76 = 57 rec* 9.4ypr = 536 yds
Bradshaw (2.5%) = 629* .025 = 16 targets* .76 = 12 rec* 8.1ypr = 97 yds
Ballard (.5%) = 629*.005 = 3 targets* .66 = 2 rec* 8.2ypr = 16 yds

Final Projections

Andrew Luck: 629 att, 384 comp, 7.82 YPA, 4919 yds, 28TD, 11INT, 62 rush, 310 yds, 4TD, 7 fum = 327.75 Points

Trent Richardson: 240 rush, 4.0 YPC, 960 yds, 9TD, 57 rec, 536 yds, 1TD, 1 fum = 265.58 Points

Ahmad Bradshaw: 49 rush, 4.5 YPC, 221 yds, 2TD, 12 rec, 97 yds = 55.77 Points

Vick Ballard: 16 rush, 4.0 YPC, 64 yds, 2 rec, 16 yds = 10.04 Points

T.Y. Hilton: 157 tar, 90 rec, 14.1 YPR, 1269 yds, 8TD = 264.9 Points

Reggie Wayne: 113 tar, 64 rec, 12.9 YPR, 826 yds, 5TD = 176.56 Points

Hakeem Nicks: 94 tar, 53 rec, 16.0 YPR, 848 yds, 4TD = 161.8 Points

Da’Rick Rogers: 25 tar, 15 rec, 13.7 YPR, 206 yds, 1TD = 41.55 Points

Donte Moncrief: 19 tar, 10 rec, 17.0 YPR, 170 yds, 1TD = 33.0 Points

Dwayne Allen: 82 tar, 56 rec, 11.8 YPR, 661 yds, 6TD = 158.08 Points

Coby Fleener: 44 tar, 25 rec, 11.4 YPR, 285 yds, 2TD = 65.5 Points

Links to Previous Teams

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New York Jets

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Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers

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