Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Houston Texans

Bill O’Brien Pass/Run Splits as Playcaller/OC of Patriots:

2009: 592/466
2010: 507/454
2011: 612/438
Total: 1711/1358 (55.75%/44.25%)

Pass/Run Splits at Penn State:

2012: 456/475
2013: 409/501
Total: 865/976 (47%/53%)

Overall Total: 2576/2334 (52.46%/47.54%)

Projecting a 547/453 split for 2014

QB Rushes per Season (NFL):

2009: 39
2010: 41
2011: 47
Total: 127 (9.35%)

RB1 Rushes per Season:

2009: 194
2010: 229
2011: 181
2012: 203
2013: 210
NFL Total: 604 (44.48%)
Overall Total: 1017 (43.57%)

RB2 Rushes per Season:

2009: 73
2010: 97
2011: 87
2012: 80
2013: 157
NFL Total: 257 (18.9%)
Overall Total: 494 (21.17%)

RB3 Rushes per Season:
2009: 63
2010: 43
2011: 77
2012: 60
2013: 60
NFL Total: 183 (13.48%)
Overall Total: 303 (13%)

Fitzpatrick: 42 rushes (9.3%)
Foster: 240 rushes (53%)
Brown: 91 (20%)
Johnson: 59 (13%)
Miscellaneous: 21 rushes (4.6%)

Average YPA (NFL): 8.08
Average YPA (NCAA): 7.39

WR1 Receptions/Total:
2009: 123/390
2010: 86/331
2011: 122/402
2012: 77/272
2013: 97/241
NFL Total: 331/1123 (29.47%)
Overall Total: 505/1636 (30.87%)

WR2 Receptions:
2009: 83
2010: 48
2011: 51
2012: 31
2013: 28
NFL Total: 182 (16.2%)
Overall Total: 241 (14.73%)

TE Receptions:
2009: 43
2010: 93
2011: 169
2012: 75
2013: 60
NFL Total: 305 (27.16%)
Overall Total: 440 (26.89%)

RB Receptions:
2009: 74
2010: 61
2011: 37
2012: 46
2013: 18
NFL Total: 172 (15.32%)
Overall Total: 236 (14.43%)

Target Distribution and Yards:

Johnson (26%) = 547* .26 = 142 targets* .64 = 91 Rec* 14.5ypr = 1320 yds
Hopkins (20%) = 547* .2 = 109 targets* .6 = 65 Rec* 14.0ypr = 910 yds
Graham (16%) = 547* .16 = 88 targets* .6 = 53 Rec* 10.7ypr = 567 yds
Griffin (14.5%) = 547* .145 = 79 targets* .65 = 51 Rec* 12.8ypr = 653 yds
Foster (11%) = 547* .0914 = 60 targets* .75 = 45 Rec* 9.1ypr = 410 yds
Brown (2.74%) = 547* .0274 = 15 targets* .7 = 11 Rec* 5.9ypr = 65 yds
D. Johnson (1%) = 547*.01 = 5 targets* .6 = 3 Rec* 8 = 24 yds

Final Projections

Ryan Fitzpatrick: 547 att, 350 comp, 7.02 YPA, 3840 yds, 25TD, 19INT, 42 rush, 202 yds, 1TD, 6 fum = 229.8 Points

Arian Foster: 240 rush, 4.5 YPC, 1080 yds, 8TD, 45 rec, 410 yds, 2TD, 2 fum = 251.95 Points

Andre Brown: 91 rush, 4.1 YPC, 373 yds, 3TD, 11 rec, 65 yds, 1 fum = 71.8 Points

Dennis Johnson: 59 rush, 3.8 YPC, 224 yds, 1TD, 3 rec, 24 yds = 33.82 Points

Andre Johnson: 142 tar, 91 rec, 14.5 YPR, 1320 yds, 6TD = 258.95 Points

DeAndre Hopkins: 109 tar, 65 rec, 14.0 YPR, 910 yds, 6TD = 192 Points

Garrett Graham: 88 tar, 53 rec, 10.7 YPR, 567 yds, 5TD = 139.71 Points

Ryan Griffin: 79 tar, 51 rec, 12.8 YPR, 653 yds, 4TD = 140.28 Points

Links to Previous Teams

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots

New York Jets

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers

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