The Anatomy of a Projection: Detroit Lions

Anthony Amico July 3, 2014 5
The Anatomy of a Projection: Detroit Lions

New OC Joe Lombardi Pass/Run Splits as QB Coach of Saints

2013: 651/391
2012: 671/370
2011: 662/431
2010: 661/380
2009: 544/468
Total: 3189/2040 (61%/39%)

Projecting 646/412 Split for 2014

Brees Rush Attempts Last 5 Seasons:

2013: 35
2012: 15
2011: 21
2010: 18
2009: 22
Total: 111 (5.4%)

Stafford: 28 rushes (6.8%)
Miscellaneous: 24 rushes (5.8 %)
Bell: 200 rushes (48.5%)
Bush: 128 rushes (31.1%)
Riddick: 32 rushes (7.8%)

RB Targets Last 5 Seasons:

2013: 186
2012: 178
2011: 183
2010: 125
2009: 124
Total: 796 (25%), projecting 170 RB Targets in 2014

TE Targets Last 5 Seasons:

2013: 174
2012: 152
2011: 158
2010: 148
2009: 124
Total: 756 (23.7%), projecting 153 TE Targets in 2014

Target Distribution and Yardage:

Johnson (26%) = 646* .26 = 168 targets* .58 = 97 rec* 17.0ypr = 1649 yds
Tate (15.5%) = 646* .155 = 100 targets* .63 = 63 rec* 14.9ypr = 939 yds
Ebron (13.2%) = 646* .132 = 85 targets* .64 = 54 rec* 12.0ypr = 648 yds
Pettigrew (7%) = 646* .07 = 45 targets* .62 = 28 rec* 10.0ypr = 280 yds
Fauria (3.6%) = 646* .036 = 23 targets* .6 = 14 rec* 11.5ypr = 161 yds
Bush (12.4%) = 646* .124 = 80 targets* .73 = 58 rec* 7.9ypr = 458 yds
Bell (10.8%) = 646* .108 = 70 targets* .77 = 54 rec* 7.9ypr = 427 yds
Riddick (3.1%) = 646* .031 = 20 targets* .75 = 15 rec* 7.5ypr = 113 yds

Final Projections

Matt Stafford: 646 att, 420 comp, 7.9 YPA, 5103 yds, 35TD, 17INT, 28 rush, 84 yds, 2TD, 4 fum = 322.54 Points

Joique Bell: 200 rush, 4.2 YPC, 840 yds, 7TD, 54 rec, 427 yds, 1TD, 3 fum = 225.66 Points

Reggie Bush: 128 rush, 4.5 YPC, 576 yds, 3TD, 58 rec, 458 yds, 3TD, 2 fum = 195.42 Points

Theo Riddick: 32 rush, 4.4 YPC, 141 yds, 15 rec, 133 yds, 1TD = 46.33 Points

Calvin Johnson: 168 tar, 97 rec, 17.0 YPR, 1649 yds, 12TD, 1 fum = 331.9 Points

Golden Tate: 100 tar, 63 rec, 14.9 YPR, 939 yds, 6TD, 3 rush, 15 yds = 194.37 Points

Eric Ebron: 85 tar, 54 rec, 12.0 YPR, 648 yds, 4TD = 142.8 Points

Brandon Pettigrew: 45 tar, 28 rec, 10.0 YPR, 280 yds, 1TD = 62.0 Points

Joe Fauria: 23 tar, 14 rec, 11.5 YPR, 161 yds, 3TD = 48.1 Points

Links to Previous Teams

Buffalo Bills
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New England Patriots
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders

San Diego Chargers
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New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears

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