Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Denver Broncos

Denver Pass/Run Split Last 2 Seasons:

2013: 675/461
2012: 588/481
Total: 1263/942 (57.3%/42.7%)

Projecting 630/470 split for 2014

Peyton Manning Yards/TD/INT/Attempts Last 2 Seasons:

2013: 5477/55/10/659
2012: 4659/37/11/583
Total: 10136/92/21/1242
Per Attempt: 8.16/.074/.017

Projecting 5141/47/11 for Peyton in 2014

Manning: 27 rushes (5.74%)
Miscellaneous: 6 rushes (1.28%)
Ball: 272 rushes (57.87%)
Anderson: 115 rushes (24.47%)
Hillman: 50 rushes (10.64%)

RB Targets Last 2 Seasons:

2013: 115
2012: 85
Total: 200 (15.84%), Projecting 100 RB Targets in 2014

Target Distribution and Yardage:

D. Thomas (22.5%) = 630* .225 = 142 targets* .655 = 93 rec* 15.4ypr = 1432 yds
Welker (20%) = 630* .2 = 126 targets* .68 = 86 rec* 11.1ypr = 955 yds
Sanders (12.9%) = 630* .129 = 81 targets* .62 = 50 rec* 12.6ypr = 630 yds
Latimer (10.6%) = 630* .106 = 67 targets* .6 = 40 rec* 14.5ypr = 580 yds
J. Thomas (15%) = 630* .15 = 95 targets* .73 = 69 rec* 12.1ypr = 835 yds
Ball (7.9%) = 630* .079 = 50 targets* .8 = 40 rec* 7.5ypr = 300 yds
Anderson (4.9%) = 630* .049 = 31 targets* .8 = 25 rec* 8ypr = 200 yds
Hillman (3%) = 630* .03 = 19 targets* .8 = 15 rec* 8.2ypr = 123 yds

Final Projections

Peyton Manning: 630 attempts, 428 comp, 8.16 YPA, 5141 yds, 47TD, 11INT, 27 rush, 0 yds, 5 fum = 361.63 Points

Montee Ball: 272 rush, 4.7 YPC, 1278 yds, 10TD, 40 rec, 300 yds, 2TD, 3 fum = 266.84 Points

C.J. Anderson: 115 rush, 5.0 YPC, 575 yds, 4TD, 25 rec, 200 yds = 126.5 Points

Ronnie Hillman: 50 rush, 4.0 YPC, 200 yds, 15 rec, 123 yds,1 fum = 46.3 Points

Demaryius Thomas: 142 tar, 93 rec, 15.4 YPR, 1432 yds, 12TD = 308.22 Points

Wes Welker: 126 tar, 86 rec, 11.1 YPR, 955 yds, 10TD = 241.46 Points

Emmanuel Sanders: 81 tar, 50 rec, 12.6 YPR, 630 yds, 3TD = 131.0 Points

Cody Latimer: 67 tar, 40 rec, 14.5 YPR, 580 yds, 5TD = 128.0 Points

Julius Thomas: 95 tar, 69 rec, 12.1 YPR, 835 yds, 11TD = 218.49 Points

Links to Previous Teams

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New York Jets

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Cincinnati Bengals

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Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston Texans

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