Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Dallas Cowboys

Pass/Run Splits Last 5 Seasons for New Play-caller Scott Linehan (all with DET)

2013: 634/445
2012: 740/391
2011: 666/356
2010: 633/404
2009: 585/409
Total: 3258/2005 (61.9%/38.1%)

Projecting a 646/431 Split for 2014

Matt Stafford Rushes Last 3 Seasons:

2013: 37
2012: 35
2011: 22
Total: 94 (4.7%)

Rush/Yds/Tar/Rec/Yds In Games w/Bush and Bell (per game numbers courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits App, 14 total games)

Bush: 16/71.57/5.71/3.86/36.14
Bell: 8.79/37/4.07/3.21/30

Romo: 20 rushes (4.7%)
Miscellaneous: 16 rushes (3.7%)
Murray: 257 rushes (59.6%)
Dunbar: 138 rushes (32%)

Matt Stafford 3 Year Average:

YPA: 7.24
TD%: 4.45%
INT%: 2.57%

Calvin Johnson Targets Last 3 Seasons:

2013: 156 (14 games)
2012: 205
2011: 158
Total: 519 (25.4%)

WR2 Targets Last 3 Seasons:

2013: 86
2012: 56
2011: 110
Total: 252 (12.4%)

WR3 Targets Last 3 Seasons:

2013: 53
2012: 43
2011: 84
Total: 180 (8.8%)

TE Targets Last 3 Seasons:

2013: 111
2012: 207
2011: 181
Total: 499 (24.5%)

RB Targets Last 3 Seasons:

2013: 156
2012: 141
2011: 116
Total: 413 (20.2%)

Target Distribution and Yardage:

Bryant (26.5%) = 646* .265 = 171 targets* .6 = 103 rec* 15.6ypr = 1607 yds
Williams (12.4%) = 646* .124 = 80 targets* .58 = 46 rec* 14.8ypr = 681 yds
Beasley (8.8%) = 646* .088 = 57 targets* .7 = 40 rec* 9.4ypr = 376 yds
Witten (17%) = 646* .17 = 110 targets* .7 = 77 rec* 11.1ypr = 855 yds
Escobar (9%) = 646* .09 = 58 targets* .6 = 35 rec* 13.5ypr = 473 yds
Murray (11.8%) = 646* .118 = 70 targets* .79 = 55 rec* 9.3ypr = 512 yds
Dunbar (8.4%) = 646* .084 = 60 targets* .68 = 41 rec* 9.3ypr = 381 yds

Final Projections

Tony Romo: 646 att, 420 comp, 7.9 YPA, 5103 yds, 32TD, 17INT, 20 rush, 40 yds, 1TD, 4 fum = 300.14 Points

DeMarco Murray: 257 rush, 4.9 YPC, 1259 yds, 8TD, 55 rec, 512 yds, 1TD, 1 fum = 285.08 Points

Lance Dunbar: 138 rush, 4.4 YPC, 607 yds, 4TD, 41 rec, 381 yds, 2TD = 175.85 Points

Dez Bryant: 171 tar, 103 rec, 15.6 YPR, 1607 yds, 12TD, 1 fum = 333.68 Points

Terrence Williams: 80 tar, 46 rec, 14.8 YPR, 681 yds, 4TD, 3 rush, 15 yds, 1 fum = 137.58 Points

Cole Beasley: 57 tar, 40 rec, 9.4 YPR, 376 yds, 2TD = 89.6 Points

Jason Witten: 110 tar, 77 rec, 11.1 YPR, 855 yds, 5TD = 192.47 Points

Gavin Escobar: 58 tar, 35 rec, 13.5 YPR, 473 yds, 4TD = 106.25 Points

Links to Previous Teams

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Pittsburgh Steelers
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Indianapolis Colts
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