Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Cleveland Browns

OC Kyle Shanahan’s pass/run ratio:

2013(WAS): 611/453
2012(WAS): 442/519
2011(WAS): 591/400
2010(WAS): 605/351
2009(HOU): 593/425
2008(HOU): 555/432
Total: 3397/2580 (56.8%/43.2%)
Total Attempts by RGIII (28 games): 849

Shanahan was incredibly run heavy in RGIII’s rookie season and should be this year as well

Projecting 451/529

RGIII 2012 rush attempts: 120 (23.12%) and missed one game

Manziel: 122 rushes (23.1%)
Miscellaneous: 21 rushes (4%)
Tate: 212 rushes (40%)
West: 143 rushes (27%)
Crowell: 31 rushes (5.9%)

RB Targets Under Shanahan:

2013: 64
2012: 55
2011: 119
2010: 141
2009: 126
2008: 97
Total: 602 (17.7%), projecting 80 RB targets for 2014

Top Targets Each Year Under Shanahan (with Gordon suspension, should be Cameron):

2013: 184
2012: 67 (10 games)
2011: 115
2010: 146
2009: 170
2008: 170
16 Game Average: 151.5 (26.76%)

Target Distribution and Yards:

Cameron (26.8%) = 451* .268 = 121 targets* .68 = 82 Rec* 12.5ypc = 1025 yds
Hawkins (22%) = 451* .2 = 99 targets* .65 = 64 Rec* 11ypc = 704 yds
Austin (18%) = 451* .18 = 81 targets* .54 = 44 Rec* 15ypc = 660 yds
Johnson (10%) = 451* .1 = 45 targets* .55 = 25 Rec* 17ypc = 425 yds
Tate (13.3%) = 451* .133 = 60 targets* .75 = 45 Rec* 7ypc = 315 yds
West (3.3%) = 451* .033 = 15 targets* .7 = 11 Rec* 6ypc = 66 yds
Crowell (1.1%) = 451* .011 = 5 targets* .75 = 4 Rec* 8ypc = 32 yds

Final Projections

Johnny Manziel: 451 att, 293 comp, 8.0 YPA, 3608 yds, 20TD, 14INT, 122 rush, 671 yds, 5TD, 6 fum = 281.42 Points

Ben Tate: 212 rush, 4.7 YPC, 996 yds, 7TD, 45 rec, 315 yds, 2TD, 2 fum = 228.14 Points

Terrence West: 143 rush, 4.4 YPC, 629 YPC, 5TD, 11 rec, 66 yds = 110.52 Points

Isaiah Crowell: 31 rush, 4.6 YPC, 143 yds, 4 rec, 32 yds = 21.46 Points

Andrew Hawkins: 99 tar, 64 rec, 11.0 YPR, 704 yds, 4TD, 5 rush, 25 yds = 160.9 Points

Miles Austin: 81 tar, 44 rec, 15.0 YPR, 660 yds, 1TD = 116 Points

Charles Johnson: 45 tar, 25 rec, 17.0 YPR, 425 yds, 1TD = 73.5 Points

Jordan Cameron: 121 tar, 82 rec, 12.5 YPR, 1025 yds, 10 TD = 244.5 Points

Links to Previous Teams

Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots

New York Jets

Baltimore Ravens

Cincinnati Bengals

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