Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Cincinnati Bengals

OC Hue Jackson pass/run splits with Oakland:

2011: 524/466
2010: 491/504
Total: 1015/970 (51%/49%)

Projecting a 513/487 split for 2014

Michael Bush and Darren McFadden played 18 games together in 2010-11 (per game numbers courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits App):
ruATT/ruYD/ruTD_____reTAR/reREC/reYD/reTD

Bush: 8.17/33.56/.5_____1.33/1/12.67/0
DMC: 15.94/84.72/.61_____3.94/3.22/33.22/.17

Dalton: 50 rushes (10.3%)
Miscellaneous: 23 rushes (4.7%)
Bernard: 195 rushes (40%)
Hill: 192 rushes (39.4%)
Green-Ellis: 27 rushes (5.5%)

RB Targets under Jackson:

2011: 115
2010: 133
Total: 248 (24.4%), projecting 125 RB targets for 2014

Target Distribution and Yards:

Green (30%) = 513* .3 = 154 targets* .565 = 87 Rec* 16.4ypr = 1427 yds
Jones (17.5%) = 513* .195 = 90 targets* .55 = 50 Rec* 17ypr = 850 yds
Bernard (16.6%) = 513* .166 = 85 targets* .75 = 64 Rec* 10.3ypr = 659 yds
Eifert (15.6%) = 513* .156 = 80 targets* .66 = 53 Rec* 12.2ypr = 647 yds
Hill (6.8%) = 513* .068 = 35 targets* .75 = 26 Rec* 8.2ypr = 213 yds
Green-Ellis (1%) = 513* .01 = 5 targets* .675 = 3 Rec* 6ypr = 18 yds

Final Projections

Andy Dalton: 513 att, 313 comp, 8.39 YPA, 4304 yds, 23TD, 15INT, 50 rush, 110 yds, 2TD, 3 fum = 251.16 Points

Gio Bernard: 195 rush, 4.9 YPC, 956 yds, 3TD, 64 rec, 659 yds, 2TD, 1 fum = 254.47 Points

Jeremy Hill: 192 rush, 4.4 YPC, 845 yds, 10TD, 26 rec, 213 yds, 1 fum = 190.8 Points

BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 27 rush, 3.9 YPC, 105 yds, 3 rec, 18 yds, 15.33 Points

A.J. Green: 154 tar, 87 rec, 16.4 YPR, 1427 yds, 10 TD, 7 rush, 70 yds, 1TD = 302.68 Points

Marvin Jones: 90 tar, 50 rec, 17.0 YPR, 850 yds, 6TD, 7 rush, 70 yds, 2TD = 190 Points

Tyler Eifert: 80 tar, 53 rec, 12.2 YPR, 647 yds, 4TD = 141.66 Points

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