The Anatomy of a Projection: Chicago Bears

Anthony Amico July 2, 2014 2
The Anatomy of a Projection: Chicago Bears

In 8 Games Started and Finished by Jay Cutler:

Pass Attempts: 273
Rush Attempts: 201

Prorates to 546/402 Pass Run Split (57.6%/42.4%)

Projecting a 576/403 Split for 2014

Cutler in 8 Games:

Attempts: 273
Completions: 181 (66.3%)
Yards: 2117 (7.75 YPA)
TD: 17
INT: 9
Rush: 21 (10.4%)
Yards: 107 (5.1 YPC)
TD: 0

Matt Forte in 8 Games:

Rush: 145 (72.1%)
Yards: 681 (4.7 YPC)
TD: 5
Tar: 46 (16.8%)
Rec: 39 (84.8%)
Yards: 293 (7.5 YPR)
TD: 1

Cutler: 42 rush (10.4%)
Miscellaneous: 14 rush (3.5%)
Forte: 291 rush (72.2%)
Carey: 56 rush (13.9%)

Marshall in 8 Games:

Tar: 81 (29.7%)
Rec: 52 (64.2%)
Yards: 634 (12.2 YPR)
TD: 7 (41.2%)

Jeffery in 8 Games:

Tar: 63 (23.1%)
Rec: 37 (58.7%)
Yards: 608 (16.4 YPR)
TD: 3 (17.6%)

Earl Bennett in 8 Games:

Tar: 19 (7%)
Rec: 12 (63.2%)
Yards: 103 (8.6 YPR)
TD: 3 (17.6%)

Martellus Bennett in 8 Games:

Tar: 51 (18.7%)
Rec: 38 (74.5%)
Yards: 435 (11.4 YPR)
TD: 3 (17.6%)

Target Distribution and Yardage:

Marshall (28.7%) = 576* .287 = 165 targets* .642 = 106 rec* 12.2ypr = 1293 yds
Jeffery (23.1%) = 576* .231 = 133 targets* .587 = 78 rec* 16.4ypr = 1279 yds
Wilson (10%) = 576* .1 = 58 targets* .6 = 35 rec* 14.3ypr = 501 yds
Bennett (16.7%) = 576* .167 = 96 targets* .7 = 67 rec* 11.4ypr = 764 yds
Forte (16.8%) = 576* .168 = 97 targets* .76 = 73 rec* 7.5ypr = 546 yds
Carey (1.7%) = 576* .017 = 10 targets* .75 = 8 rec* 7ypr = 56 yds

Final Projections

Jay Cutler: 576 att, 380 comp, 7.9 YPA, 4550 yds, 34TD, 19INT, 42 rush, 214 yds, 7 fum = 287.42 Points

Matt Forte: 291 rush, 4.7 YPC, 1368 yds, 10TD, 73 rec, 548 yds, 2TD, 2 fum = 334.52 Points

Ka’Deem Carey: 56 rush, 4.2 YPC, 235 yds, 2TD, 8 rec, 56 yds = 49.12 Points

Brandon Marshall: 165 tar, 106 rec, 12.2 YPR, 1293 yds, 12TD = 307.32 Points

Alshon Jeffery: 133 tar, 78 rec, 16.4 YPR, 1279 yds, 8TD, 14 rush, 92 yds, 1 fum = 261.16 Points

Marquess Wilson: 58 tar, 35 rec, 14.3 YPR, 501 yds, 5TD = 115.05 Points

Martellus Bennett: 96 tar, 67 rec, 11.4 YPR, 764 yds, 7TD = 185.38 Points

 

Links to Previous Teams

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New England Patriots
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
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Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
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New York Giants
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