Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Carolina Panthers

Pass/Run Splits Under Ron Rivera Last 3 Seasons:

2013: 473/483
2012: 490/462
2011: 519/445
Total: 1482/1390 (51.6%/48.4%)

Projecting a 494/463 Split for 2014

Cam Rushes Last 3 Seasons:

2013: 111
2012: 127
2011: 126
Total: 364 (26.2%)

Williams Numbers w/Stewart and Tolbert Last 2 Seasons (per game numbers courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits App, 14 games)

Rush: 8.86 (30.9%)
Yards: 30.57 (3.45 YPC)
TD: .29 (25.3%)
Tar: 1.29 (25.4%)
Rec: .64 (49.6%)
Yards: 4.93 (7.7 YPR)
TD: 0

Stewart Numbers w/Williams and Tolbert Last 2 Seasons (per game, 14 games)

Rush: 9.07 (31.7%)
Yards: 34.07 (3.76 YPC)
TD: .07 (6.1%)
Tar: 2 (39.4%)
Rec: 1.57 (78.5%)
Yards: 14.14 (9.0 YPR)
TD: .07

Tolbert Numbers w/Stewart and Williams Last 2 Seasons (per game, 14 games)

Rush: 2.86 (10%)
Yards: 9.43 (3.3 YPC)
TD: .214 (18.7%)
Tar: 1.78 (35.1%)
Rec: 1.36 (76.4%)
Yards: 12.64 (9.3 YPR)
TD: 0

Cam Numbers w/Stewart, Williams, Tolbert Last 2 Seasons (per game, 14 games)

Rush: 7.86 (27.4%)
Yards: 44.93 (5.7 YPC)
TD: .57 (49.8%)
Att: 31
Comp: 17.79 (57.4%)
Yards: 221.43 (7.14 YPA)
TD: 1.14 (3.68%)
INT: .64 (2.1%)

Newton: 122 rush (26.3%)
Miscellaneous: 11 rush (2.4%)
Williams: 137 rush (29.6%)
Stewart: 141 rush (30.1%)
Tolbert: 44 rush (9.5%)
Gaffney: 8 carries (1.7%)

Smith Last 2 Seasons (per game w/Stewart, Williams, and Tolbert):

Targets: 8.5 (27.4%)
Rec: 4.425 (52.1%)
Yards: 62.36 (14.1 YPR)
TD: .139 (12.2%)

LaFell Last 2 Seasons (per game w/Stewart, Williams, and Tolbert):

Targets: 6.3 (20.3%)
Rec: 3.76 (59.7%)
Yards: 54.1 (14.4 YPR)
TD: .31 (27.2%)

Olsen Last 2 Seasons (per game w/Stewart, Williams, and Tolbert):

Targets: 6.43 (20.7%)
Rec: 4.22 (65.6%)
Yards: 45.79 (10.85)
TD: .429 (37.6%)

Target Distribution and Yardage:

Benjamin (20.3%) = 494* .203 = 100 targets* .597 = 60 rec* 14.4ypr = 864 yds
Cotchery (15%) = 494* .15 = 74 targets* .64 = 47 rec* 12.0ypr = 564 yds
Avant (8.1%) = 494* .081 = 40 targets* .63 = 25 rec* 12.0ypr = 300 yds
Olsen (25%) = 494* .25 = 124 targets* .656 = 81 rec* 10.8ypr = 875 yds
Stewart (6.45%) = 494* .0645 = 40 targets* .76 = 30 rec* 9.0ypr = 270 yds
Tolbert (5.74%) = 494* .0574 = 28 targets* .75 = 21 rec* 9.3ypr = 195 yds
Williams (4.16%) = 494* .0416 = 13 targets* .72 = 9 rec* 9.0ypr = 81 yds

Final Projections

Cam Newton: 494 att, 316 comp, 7.5 YPA, 3705 yds, 20TD, 10INT, 122 rush, 695 yds, 8TD, 3 fum = 319.7 Points

Jonathan Stewart: 141 rush, 3.8 YPC, 536 yds, 1TD, 30 rec, 270 yds, 1TD = 122.58 Points

DeAngelo Williams: 137 rush, 3.5 YPC, 480 yds, 4TD, 9rec, 81 yds, 1 fum = 88.05 Points

Mike Tolbert: 44 rush, 3.3 YPC, 145 yds, 3TD, 21 rec, 195 yds, 1TD = 79.05 Points

Tyler Gaffney: 8 rush, 4.0 YPC, 32 yds = 3.2 Points

Kelvin Benjamin: 100 tar, 60 rec, 14.4 YPR, 864 yds, 8TD = 194.4 Points

Jerricho Cotchery: 74 tar, 47 rec, 12.0 YPR, 564 yds, 1TD = 109.4 Points

Jason Avant: 40 tar, 25 rec, 12.0 YPR, 300 yds = 55.0 Points

Greg Olsen: 124 tar, 81 rec, 10.8 YPR, 875 yds, 6TD = 204.48 Points

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