The Anatomy of a Projection: Carolina Panthers

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Source: thesportspost.com

Pass/Run Splits Under Ron Rivera Last 3 Seasons:

2013: 473/483
2012: 490/462
2011: 519/445
Total: 1482/1390 (51.6%/48.4%)

Projecting a 494/463 Split for 2014

Cam Rushes Last 3 Seasons:

2013: 111
2012: 127
2011: 126
Total: 364 (26.2%)

Williams Numbers w/Stewart and Tolbert Last 2 Seasons (per game numbers courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits App, 14 games)

Rush: 8.86 (30.9%)
Yards: 30.57 (3.45 YPC)
TD: .29 (25.3%)
Tar: 1.29 (25.4%)
Rec: .64 (49.6%)
Yards: 4.93 (7.7 YPR)
TD: 0

Stewart Numbers w/Williams and Tolbert Last 2 Seasons (per game, 14 games)

Rush: 9.07 (31.7%)
Yards: 34.07 (3.76 YPC)
TD: .07 (6.1%)
Tar: 2 (39.4%)
Rec: 1.57 (78.5%)
Yards: 14.14 (9.0 YPR)
TD: .07

Tolbert Numbers w/Stewart and Williams Last 2 Seasons (per game, 14 games)

Rush: 2.86 (10%)
Yards: 9.43 (3.3 YPC)
TD: .214 (18.7%)
Tar: 1.78 (35.1%)
Rec: 1.36 (76.4%)
Yards: 12.64 (9.3 YPR)
TD: 0

Cam Numbers w/Stewart, Williams, Tolbert Last 2 Seasons (per game, 14 games)

Rush: 7.86 (27.4%)
Yards: 44.93 (5.7 YPC)
TD: .57 (49.8%)
Att: 31
Comp: 17.79 (57.4%)
Yards: 221.43 (7.14 YPA)
TD: 1.14 (3.68%)
INT: .64 (2.1%)

Newton: 122 rush (26.3%)
Miscellaneous: 11 rush (2.4%)
Williams: 137 rush (29.6%)
Stewart: 141 rush (30.1%)
Tolbert: 44 rush (9.5%)
Gaffney: 8 carries (1.7%)

Smith Last 2 Seasons (per game w/Stewart, Williams, and Tolbert):

Targets: 8.5 (27.4%)
Rec: 4.425 (52.1%)
Yards: 62.36 (14.1 YPR)
TD: .139 (12.2%)

LaFell Last 2 Seasons (per game w/Stewart, Williams, and Tolbert):

Targets: 6.3 (20.3%)
Rec: 3.76 (59.7%)
Yards: 54.1 (14.4 YPR)
TD: .31 (27.2%)

Olsen Last 2 Seasons (per game w/Stewart, Williams, and Tolbert):

Targets: 6.43 (20.7%)
Rec: 4.22 (65.6%)
Yards: 45.79 (10.85)
TD: .429 (37.6%)

Target Distribution and Yardage:

Benjamin (20.3%) = 494* .203 = 100 targets* .597 = 60 rec* 14.4ypr = 864 yds
Cotchery (15%) = 494* .15 = 74 targets* .64 = 47 rec* 12.0ypr = 564 yds
Avant (8.1%) = 494* .081 = 40 targets* .63 = 25 rec* 12.0ypr = 300 yds
Olsen (25%) = 494* .25 = 124 targets* .656 = 81 rec* 10.8ypr = 875 yds
Stewart (6.45%) = 494* .0645 = 40 targets* .76 = 30 rec* 9.0ypr = 270 yds
Tolbert (5.74%) = 494* .0574 = 28 targets* .75 = 21 rec* 9.3ypr = 195 yds
Williams (4.16%) = 494* .0416 = 13 targets* .72 = 9 rec* 9.0ypr = 81 yds

Final Projections

Cam Newton: 494 att, 316 comp, 7.5 YPA, 3705 yds, 20TD, 10INT, 122 rush, 695 yds, 8TD, 3 fum = 319.7 Points

Jonathan Stewart: 141 rush, 3.8 YPC, 536 yds, 1TD, 30 rec, 270 yds, 1TD = 122.58 Points

DeAngelo Williams: 137 rush, 3.5 YPC, 480 yds, 4TD, 9rec, 81 yds, 1 fum = 88.05 Points

Mike Tolbert: 44 rush, 3.3 YPC, 145 yds, 3TD, 21 rec, 195 yds, 1TD = 79.05 Points

Tyler Gaffney: 8 rush, 4.0 YPC, 32 yds = 3.2 Points

Kelvin Benjamin: 100 tar, 60 rec, 14.4 YPR, 864 yds, 8TD = 194.4 Points

Jerricho Cotchery: 74 tar, 47 rec, 12.0 YPR, 564 yds, 1TD = 109.4 Points

Jason Avant: 40 tar, 25 rec, 12.0 YPR, 300 yds = 55.0 Points

Greg Olsen: 124 tar, 81 rec, 10.8 YPR, 875 yds, 6TD = 204.48 Points

Links to Previous Teams

Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders

San Diego Chargers
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta Falcons

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Anthony is the Lead Fantasy Football Writer for No Coast Bias and a founder of JAMSportz.wordpress.com. When he isn't writing about and playing fantasy football, he is a high school math teacher and football coach. Follow Anthony on twitter @amicsta (link below) for all his latest thoughts and opinions as well as updates for new articles to help you win your league.

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