Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Buffalo Bills

Whenever anyone has asked me to name my favorite sports, I always answer with: 1. NFL 2. NFL Off-season. The latter option has been in full swing since February, and if you’re a football junkie like me, it hasn’t settled down one bit. Fantasy football works just the same way. If you’re new to the site, and you haven’t been following JAMSportz at all, then you probably don’t know that this is fantasy projection season for me. As always, I plan on going through every team in the NFL and making my best possible projection for the relevant players. Most site, magazines, etc. that are considered reputable sources for fantasy information compile and distribute projections, and they are a great tool to have for rankings. However, if you don’t know at least the general idea as to where they came from, it becomes hard to agree, disagree, and overall, use said projections.

In my new feature: The Anatomy of a Projection, I will provide for you the notes that I used and data I compiled to make my projections, along with the projections (PPR) themselves at the bottom. The data will be organized as best as possible, but if it seems scatter shot or hard to follow, let me know in the comments section and I will explain as best as possible. This should give you, the fantasy player, a better idea as to where projections come from, and likewise should allow for better rankings to be made. We start today with the Buffalo Bills:

Games Started and Finished by Manuel:

Runs/Passes

34/27

33/39

25/42

55/22

22/39

38/28

31/32

22/33

44/24

Total: 304/286 (9 games)

16 Games: 540/508

 

Manuel Runs/Game:   5.77

Manuel Runs/16: 92

Manuel YPC: 3.3 (Seems low, perhaps due to injury? Bump to 5)

Manuel Pass TD/16: 20

Manuel INT/16: 16

 

Jackson/Spiller Runs

13/17

12/16

7/10

16/23

12/8

12/13

11/15

5/11

17/13

 

105/126 (9 games)

187/224 (16 games) (adjusted to 182/218)

 

Jackson/Spiller Yards (Rushing):

67/41

30/103

72/9

87/77

55/23

34/6

42/149

12/22

80/67

 

479/497

YPC: 4.56/3.94 (Spiller low perhaps due to injury)

 

 

Jackson/Spiller Receptions-Targets-Yards

4-5-41/5-6-14

5-7-35/3-4-14

4-5-37/1-1-1

0/0

3-4-7/3-3-11

2-2-5/2-2-10

4-4-36/2-4-8

4-7-26/1-1-26

1-2-8/1-2-1

 

27-36-195/18-23-85 (9 games) (Spiller YPR very low. Should normalize about 7.5)

 

16 games:

Jackson-48-64-347

Spiller-32-41-240

 

Jackson/Spiller Rush/Rec may go down with the addition of Watkins

 

Receivers/TE:

 

508 pass attempts

 

Watkins (25%) = 508*.25=127 Targets * .55 = 70 Rec * 11.5ypr = 805 yds

Woods (20%) = 508*.2 = 102 Targets * .53 = 54 Rec * 15.5ypr = 837 yds

Chandler (14.5%) = 508*.145 = 74 Targets * .67 = 50 Rec * 12ypr = 600 yds

Williams ( 12.5%) = 508*.125 = 64 Targets * .51 = 33 Rec * 15ypr = 495 yds

 

Final Projections

E.J. Manuel: 508 att, 305 comp, 7 YPA, 3556 yds, 20TD, 16INT, 92 rush, 460 yds, 3 TD, 5 fum = 244.24 Points

C.J. Spiller: 218 rush, 5.1 ypc, 1112 yds, 3TD, 32 rec, 246 yd, 1TD, 1 fum = 190.82 Points

Fred Jackson: 182 rush, 4.5 ypc, 819 yds, 8TD, 48 rec, 346 yds, 1TD, 1 fum = 216.46 Points

Bryce Brown: 30 rush, 4.6 ypc, 138 yds, 0TD, 3 rec, 24 yds, 0TD, 0 fum = 19.2 Points

Sammy Watkins: 127 tar, 70 rec, 11.5 ypr, 805 yds, 5TD, 10 rush, 80 yds = 188.5 Points

Robert Woods: 102 tar, 54 rec, 15.5 ypr, 837 yds, 4TD = 161.7 Points

Mike Williams: 64 tar, 33 rec, 15 ypr, 495 yds, 2TD = 94.5 Points

Scott Chandler: 74 tar, 50 rec, 12 ypr, 600 yds, 4TD = 134 Points

 

Expect more projections as we continue to roll through the off-season. By mid-July, I hope to have a complete set of initial projections, rankings, and more to help you win your fantasy league! Be sure not to miss a thing, and follow me on twitter for thoughts on news and other random NFL opinions!

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