Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Baltimore Ravens

OC Gary Kubiak pass/run as HC of HOU:

2013: 633/414
2012: 554/508
2011: 467/546
2010: 574/423
2009: 593/425
2008: 555/432
2007: 529/417
2006: 481/431
Total: 4386/3596 (55%/45%)

Projecting a 561/459 split for 2014

Schaub: 1.77 attempts/game under Kubiak
Flacco: 2.375 attempts/game in career

Ray Rice is facing a suspension for off field problems, assume 3 games. Pierce is coming off of a serious shoulder surgery. Taliaferro seems like the best bet for consistent work, about half of the RB workload for the season. Kubiak does like to lean on one RB when possible, and Taliaferro is perhaps the best athlete of the 3 at this point.

Flacco: 32 rushes (7%)
Miscellaneous: 5 rushes (1%)
Rice: 93 rushes (20.3%)
Pierce: 118 rushes (25.7%)
Taliaferro: 211 rushes (46%)

RB Targets under Kubiak:

2013: 120
2012: 74
2011: 100
2010: 114
2009: 126
2008: 97
2007: 99
2006: 87
Total: 817 (18.6%), projecting 104 RB targets in 2014

TE Targets under Kubiak: Note that TE targets significantly spiked once Kyle Shanahan left.

2013: 156
2012: 186
2011: 149
2010: 137
2009: 108
2008: 117
2007: 109
2006: 81
Total: 1043 (23.8%)
Total w/o Shanahan: 628 (28.2%), projecting 158 TE targets for 2014
Andre Johnson Targets per game under Kubiak: 10.33

Target Distribution and Yards:

T. Smith (30%) = 561* .3 = 168 targets* .52 = 87 Rec* 15.9ypc = 1383 yards
Pitta (20%) = 561* .2 = 112 targets * .67 = 75 Rec* 11ypc = 825 yards
S. Smith ( 17%) = 561* .17 = 95 targets* .6 = 57 Rec* 12ypc = 684 yards
Rice (9.3%) = 561* .093 = 52 targets* .75 = 39 Rec* 8.2ypc = 320 yards
Daniels (8.2%) = 561* .082 = 46 targets* .65 = 30 Rec* 11ypc = 330 yards
Taliaferro (6.4%) = 561* .064 = 36 targets* .65 = 23 Rec* 7.5ypc = 173 yards
Pierce (2.8%) = 561* .028 = 16 targets* .75 = 12 Rec* 5.6ypc = 67 yards

Final Projections

Joe Flacco: 561 att, 348 comp, 7.25 YPA, 4067 yds, 23TD, 14INT, 32 rush, 80 yds, 1TD, 7 fum = 226.69 Points

Lorenzo Taliaferro: 211 rush, 4.4 YPC, 928 yds, 8TD, 23 rec, 173 yds, 1TD, 1 fum = 186.09 Points

Ray Rice: 93 rush, 4.3 YPC, 400 yds, 3TD, 39 rec, 320 yds, 1TD = 134.97 Points

Bernard Pierce: 118 rush, 4.0 YPC, 472 yds, 3TD, 12 rec, 67 yds = 83.92 Points

Torrey Smith: 168 tar, 87 rec, 15.9 YPR, 1383 yds, 7TD, 3 rush, 21 yds = 269.43 Points

Steve Smith: 95 tar, 57 rec, 12.0 YPR, 684 yds, 4TD = 149.4 Points

Dennis Pitta: 112 tar, 75 rec, 11.0 YPR, 825 yds, 8TD = 205.5 Points

Owen Daniels: 46 tar, 30 rec, 11.0 YPR, 330 yds, 2TD = 75 Points

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