The Anatomy of a Projection: Atlanta Falcons

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Source: fansided.com

Pass/Run Split Last 2 Seasons Under OC Dirk Koetter:

2013: 659/321
2012: 615/378
Total: 1274/699 (64.6%/35.4%)

Projecting a 638/349 Split for 2014

Matt Ryan Rush Attempts Last 2 Seasons:

2013: 17
2012: 34
Total: 51 (7.3%)

Ryan: 25 rushes (7.2%)
Miscellaneous: 20 rushes (5.7%)
Jackson: 224 rushes (64.2%)
Freeman: 80 rushes (22.9%)

Matt Ryan Last 2 Seasons w/Julio Jones (per game numbers courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits App)

Att: 39.67
Comp: 27.29 (68.8%)
Yards: 303.24 (7.64 YPA)
TD: 2 (.0504%)
INT: .81 (.0204%)

Roddy White Last 2 Seasons w/Julio Jones (per game numbers)

Tar: 7.86 (19.8%)
Rec: 5.05 (64.2%)
Yards: 70.48 (13.96 YPR)
TD: .33 (16.5%)

Julio Jones Last 2 Seasons (per game numbers)

Tar: 8.9 (22.4%)
Rec: 5.71 (64.2%)
Yards: 84.67 (14.83 YPR)
TD: .57 (28.5%)

Tony Gonzalez Last 2 Seasons (per game numbers)

Tar: 8.14 (20.5%)
Rec: 6 (73.7%)
Yards: 60.43 (10.1 YPR)
TD: .52 (26%)

RBTargets Last 2 Seasons w/Julio (per game numbers): 8 (20.2%)

Target Distribution and Yardage:
Jones (25%) = .25* 638 = 160 targets* .642 = 103 rec* 14.8ypr = 1524 yds
White (19.8%) = .198* 638 = 126 targets* .642 = 81 rec* 14.0ypr = 1134 yds
Douglas (17.9%) = .179* 638 = 114 targets* .64 = 73 rec* 11.9ypr = 869 yds
Toilolo (10%) = 638* .1 = 64 targets* .7 = 45 rec* 9.5ypr = 428 yds
Jackson (11%) = 638* .11 = 70 targets* .7 = 49 rec* 7.0ypr = 343 yds
Freeman (7.8%) = 638* .078 = 50 targets* .75 = 38 rec* 7.5ypr = 285 yds

Final Projections

Matt Ryan: 638 att, 427 comp, 7.8 YPA, 4976 yds, 32TD, 13INT, 25 rush, 96 yds, 5 fum = 300.66

Steven Jackson: 224 rush, 4.2 YPC, 941 yds, 8TD, 49 rec, 343 yds, 2TD = 237.38 Points

Devonta Freeman: 80 rush, 4.7 YPC, 376 yds, 2TD, 38 rec, 285 yds, 2TD = 128.1 Points

Julio Jones: 160 tar, 103 rec, 14.8 YPR, 1524 yds, 10TD, 3 rush, 18 yds, 1 fum = 315.24 Points

Roddy White: 126 tar, 81 rec, 14.0 YPR, 1134 yds, 6TD, 1 fum = 228.4 Points

Harry Douglas: 114 tar, 73 rec, 11.9 YPR, 869 yds, 5TD = 189.87 Points

Levine Toilolo: 64 tar, 45 rec, 9.5 YPR, 428 yds, 4TD = 111.75 Points

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Anthony is the Lead Fantasy Football Writer for No Coast Bias and a founder of JAMSportz.wordpress.com. When he isn't writing about and playing fantasy football, he is a high school math teacher and football coach. Follow Anthony on twitter @amicsta (link below) for all his latest thoughts and opinions as well as updates for new articles to help you win your league.

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