Fantasy

The Anatomy of a Projection: Atlanta Falcons

Pass/Run Split Last 2 Seasons Under OC Dirk Koetter:

2013: 659/321
2012: 615/378
Total: 1274/699 (64.6%/35.4%)

Projecting a 638/349 Split for 2014

Matt Ryan Rush Attempts Last 2 Seasons:

2013: 17
2012: 34
Total: 51 (7.3%)

Ryan: 25 rushes (7.2%)
Miscellaneous: 20 rushes (5.7%)
Jackson: 224 rushes (64.2%)
Freeman: 80 rushes (22.9%)

Matt Ryan Last 2 Seasons w/Julio Jones (per game numbers courtesy of the RotoViz Game Splits App)

Att: 39.67
Comp: 27.29 (68.8%)
Yards: 303.24 (7.64 YPA)
TD: 2 (.0504%)
INT: .81 (.0204%)

Roddy White Last 2 Seasons w/Julio Jones (per game numbers)

Tar: 7.86 (19.8%)
Rec: 5.05 (64.2%)
Yards: 70.48 (13.96 YPR)
TD: .33 (16.5%)

Julio Jones Last 2 Seasons (per game numbers)

Tar: 8.9 (22.4%)
Rec: 5.71 (64.2%)
Yards: 84.67 (14.83 YPR)
TD: .57 (28.5%)

Tony Gonzalez Last 2 Seasons (per game numbers)

Tar: 8.14 (20.5%)
Rec: 6 (73.7%)
Yards: 60.43 (10.1 YPR)
TD: .52 (26%)

RBTargets Last 2 Seasons w/Julio (per game numbers): 8 (20.2%)

Target Distribution and Yardage:
Jones (25%) = .25* 638 = 160 targets* .642 = 103 rec* 14.8ypr = 1524 yds
White (19.8%) = .198* 638 = 126 targets* .642 = 81 rec* 14.0ypr = 1134 yds
Douglas (17.9%) = .179* 638 = 114 targets* .64 = 73 rec* 11.9ypr = 869 yds
Toilolo (10%) = 638* .1 = 64 targets* .7 = 45 rec* 9.5ypr = 428 yds
Jackson (11%) = 638* .11 = 70 targets* .7 = 49 rec* 7.0ypr = 343 yds
Freeman (7.8%) = 638* .078 = 50 targets* .75 = 38 rec* 7.5ypr = 285 yds

Final Projections

Matt Ryan: 638 att, 427 comp, 7.8 YPA, 4976 yds, 32TD, 13INT, 25 rush, 96 yds, 5 fum = 300.66

Steven Jackson: 224 rush, 4.2 YPC, 941 yds, 8TD, 49 rec, 343 yds, 2TD = 237.38 Points

Devonta Freeman: 80 rush, 4.7 YPC, 376 yds, 2TD, 38 rec, 285 yds, 2TD = 128.1 Points

Julio Jones: 160 tar, 103 rec, 14.8 YPR, 1524 yds, 10TD, 3 rush, 18 yds, 1 fum = 315.24 Points

Roddy White: 126 tar, 81 rec, 14.0 YPR, 1134 yds, 6TD, 1 fum = 228.4 Points

Harry Douglas: 114 tar, 73 rec, 11.9 YPR, 869 yds, 5TD = 189.87 Points

Levine Toilolo: 64 tar, 45 rec, 9.5 YPR, 428 yds, 4TD = 111.75 Points

Links to Previous Teams

Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders

San Diego Chargers
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
Washington Redskins
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Minnesota Vikings

1 Comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

To Top